Growth continues to lag behind more affordable parts of the country, including major metro areas in Texas and Florida.
The latest census shows San Francisco has seen the steepest population decline since the start of the pandemic, dropping 6% to more than 826,000 people. The Bay Area population has yet to fully recover from the pandemic exodus from the region, as growth continues to lag far behind that of more affordable parts of the country, including major metro areas in Texas and Florida, according to new estimates from the U.
S. Census. And even as the region is no longer losing population, the sluggish growth threatens its economy. Despite incremental gains in recent years, the number of people in the region remains about 2% below 2020 levels. The latest census estimate found around 7.6 million residents in the nine-county Bay Area. The slow recovery highlights the lasting impacts of the remote-work revolution that sent thousands of residents moving to less expensive cities such as Austin, Miami and Seattle. The Bay Area also has lagged behind most of those places in building new housing over the past half-decade, which economists agree is a main factor keeping local costs high and limiting growth.Forget California’s exodus. Why do so few move here?Even as the artificial intelligence boom shows signs of boosting the local economy, it hasn’t proven enough to overcome the effects of the region’s housing crunch — and of President Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown, said Jeff Bellisario, executive director of the Bay Area Council Economic Institute. “This region is very reliant on international migration for its historic population,” said Bellisario, adding that Trump’s policies have already “had a profound impact on our region.” This week, the Economic Institute released a report finding that Trump’s mass deportation plans could strip $67 billion from the region’s economy, about 5.8% of its total economic output. If federal immigration policy holds back growth in the Bay Area, it could put an even greater strain on the local workforce, schools and health care systems, which are already struggling with the effects of a static population. “Without immigrants to drive population growth, it will ripple through and lead to some stagnation in the economy,” said Stephen Levy, director of the Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy. A decline in international migration slowed growth in many parts of the country last year, according to researchers at the U.S. Census Bureau. The latest census estimates cover the first seven months of Trump’s immigration policies. Despite the crackdown, some regions have still seen significant population gains. Eight of the 10 fastest-growing metro areas were in Sun Belt states, many of which have seen housing booms in recent years. That includes Houston, Austin, Phoenix, Charlotte, Atlanta and Orlando. Austin, for example, saw its population surge 14.8% to more than 2.6 million between 2020 and 2025, according to the data. Compare that to the Bay Area, where the San Francisco-Oakland metro area fell 2.6% to about 4.6 million, and the San Jose-Sunnyvale metro fell 0.8% to about 1.9 million. But growth wasn’t limited to the Sun Belt. Seattle, which has also seen a recent spike in home construction, experienced some of the largest growth among expensive coastal cities, rising 3.3% over that period to about 2.3 million. Los Angeles, meanwhile, saw the largest decline among major metros, falling 3.2% to around 9.7 million. Within the Bay Area, San Francisco saw the steepest decline since the start of the pandemic, dropping 6% to more than 826,000 people. Contra Costa County, one of the most affordable parts of the region, saw the smallest decline, falling just 0.35% to almost 1.2 million. The region is growing again, but only barely. On a yearly basis, every Bay Area county except pricey Marin and Napa counties in the North Bay saw slight population increases. The total Bay Area population grew about 0.2% between 2024 and 2025. While San Francisco saw the biggest population drop since the pandemic, it also saw the largest year-over-year increase, potentially reflecting — at least to some extent — an AI boom in the city, said Bellisario with the Economic Institute. But even as new AI companies and data centers continue to sprout up across the region, there remains uncertainty over whether that will translate into widespread job growth. “We have this funny situation where GDP and corporate profits could continue to grow,” Levy said. “But the impact on ordinary residents on job growth could be much more limited.”Newsom issues 'final warning' to cities over housing law violations — only one is in the Bay AreaAsking Eric: Since I found the pictures of my wife, a new worry is gnawing at meDear Abby: The bride admitted to me that the wedding was a shamHarriette Cole: How can I possibly have this conversation with my new boyfriend?
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