Nasdaq 100: Has the Next Leg Lower Started?

Stocks Analysis by Dr. Arnout ter Schure covering: Nasdaq 100. Read Dr. Arnout ter Schure 's latest article on Investing.com

For those new to our work, we primarily use the Elliott Wave Principle to forecast the financial markets, such as the. The EWP allows us to identify the path the market can most likely take based on known patterns, which must adhere to specific price-based rules.from two weeks ago provides a good review of our recent reliable work and calls . Since August 1, we have been looking for a rally back to ideally $19300-800. See the red box in Figure 1 below.

As the index moved higher the days after our last update, we raised the Bulls’ colored warning levels to highlight levels below which further upside would become less likely. The index has dropped below the blue first warning level and is holding the grey second warning level. A daily close below will be a good sign that the next leg lower has started, with a break below the orange level at $19450, essentially the second-to-last nail in the Bulls’ coffin.

Namely, the rally from the October 2022 low to the November 2022 high, followed by the December low, counts best as a leading diagonal 1st wave and 2nd wave decline, respectively. From there, the next set of waves developed—a subdividing black W-3 , etc. Lastly, going back to Figure 1, the bears do not want to see the index break above last week’s high, as that would put five waves on the chart. That, in turn, would mean the August 5 low was the black “alt: 4” low, as shown in Figure 2.

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