NASDAQ 100: Will the Next Leg Lower Start Soon?

Stocks Analysis by Dr. Arnout ter Schure covering: Nasdaq 100. Read Dr. Arnout ter Schure 's latest article on Investing.com

. The EWP allows us to identify the potential paths the market can take based on known patterns, which must adhere to specific price-based rules. Since we cannot predict the future, the EWP can help us identify the most likely path. However, since financial markets are non-linear, stochastic, and probabilistic, we must, like any other forecasting discipline, always “anticipate, monitor, and adjust if necessary.”The index peaked at $20690 on July 10.

The red W-b/ii countertrend rally has reached the $19300-800 target zone, the 50-76.4% retracement of the red W-a/i. Moreover, the green W-c has also almost reached the 1.618x W-a extension at $19500, measured from the green W-b low. However, the green W-c doesn’t have to peak at that level and can easily extend to the $19800 region.

Due to last week's deeper-than-expected decline, our alternative scenario is that the decline comprised only three waves. See the red W-a, b, and c in Figure 2 below. The green W-3 should wrap up, followed by a green W-4 and 5. Ideally, the former should stay above $18700 to allow the latter to reach $19950+/-50. However, given that we can count five larger waves up from the critical October 2022 low into the July high, which we will show in our next update, it -for now- remains our alternative scenario.

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