Nasdaq 100 Bears Finally Alive: Bottom Soon?

Stocks Analysis by Dr. Arnout ter Schure covering: Nasdaq 100. Read Dr. Arnout ter Schure 's latest article on Investing.com

from July 5, we assessed the state of the market and found that the Bears had to wait to get their chance,

Our bullish stance was correct, as our forecasted impulse path predicted the index’s movement rather closely. Namely, it topped out on July 9 at $20543 and had an intra-day low of $20395: W-3 and W-4. It then peaked at $20690 on July 10: W-5. Since then, it has lost almost 10%. See Figure 1 below. A move below Monday’s low will confirm the green W-5 of the larger red W-a/i. From there, the red W-b/ii back to ideally a 50-76.4% retracement of the red W-a/i must be anticipated: $19300-800. Once the multi-week countertrend rally, W-b/ii, completes a “devasting” W-c/iii should start, which could target as low as $15600 depending on where the red W-b/ii will top and the Fibonacci relationship between W-c/iii and W-a/i: C/iii=1.00 to 1.618x a/iii.

In that case, we will look for $20150+/-50 to be reached for a more protracted, complex red W-b/ii, from where the red W-c/iii can still take hold. However, in that case, we expect it to reach as low as $17000 instead. For now, that remains our alternative, and our focus is on completing the impulse lower.

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