The pollster released a long blog post detailing why Trump won and took down his election model, which had predicted a Harris win.
Statistician Nate Silver has responded to Donald Trump's projected victory, as the former president sits on 266 electoral votes to Vice President Kamala Harris' 219.On his newsletter site Silver Bulletin, the pollster published a blog post titled '24 reasons that Trump won.' The listed reasons included high inflation rates, Elon Musk's support and the rise of immigration under the Biden-Harris administration.
Something like The New York Times needle is a much better product.'At the time of writing—with Trump just shy of the 270 electoral votes needed for a formal win—The New York Times needle leaned toward a 'very likely' victory for the Republican candidate, giving the former president a greater than 95 percent chance of electoral success.The outlet's needle also estimated 312 electoral votes for Trump and 226 for Harris, and its popular vote estimate also showed Trump leading.
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