Nate Silver is on record saying the presidential election momentum is with Donald Trump, but it’s not because polling or markets data has him 100%…
Political polling data expert Nate Silver has said he thinks Donald Trump is more likely to win the election than Kamala Harris, but he also tells CNBC that the momentum for Trump picked up by pollsters is questionable.
— but he also described it as a"gut instinct" rather than more certain data science. In an interview with CNBC's"Closing Bell: Overtime" anchor Jon Fortt at the CNBC Technology Executive Council Summit in New York City on Tuesday, Silver laid out several big caveats about current polling and betting markets.But he also said for any anecdotal example he can offer as to why Trump's momentum is peaking,"there is a counter example.
The polls in recent elections have been off by three to four points"systematically, across the board," Silver said, so recent small swings in polls favoring Trump are"swamped by the uncertainty ... tripping off the noise, basically," he said.Most people no longer even have the landline phones which past election cycle polling history relied on."Old white people answer the phone, but others vote," he added.
The real money is made in bets that can generate outsize returns. Trump is not nearly as good a bet to the gambler as he was in 2016. In that election, Silver's model had Trump's odds of winning at 29%, which was almost double Trump's odds in most of the polls. To the gambler, that was a situation in which the risk was worth taking with one winning bet making up for all the lost ones many times over. That's not the case this time around.
On the other hand, Silver noted Democrats have won five of the past six popular votes, abortion is a big liability for the Republican Party in this election, and Democrats are generally good at getting voters to turn out, while Trump more or less handed off that responsibility to Elon Musk, who has no prior experience with voter campaigns. Though even here he added a caveat, saying this election could be one in which surprise turnout helps Trump more than Harris.
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