Nate Silver Predicts Factor That May 'Determine' if Harris or Trump Wins

Enthusiasm among voters will likely sway the results, particularly in key battleground states, the polling expert says.

Voter turnout will likely be the deciding factor in the razor-thin presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, according to polling expert Nate Silver.'It's a cliché,' Silver wrote on Silver Bulletin, his Substack publication, 'but turnout—particularly whether Donald Trump can turn out his marginal voters...may determine who wins.

Democrats would actually benefit if overall turnout is lower because this scenario would limit the impact of Trump's more variable voter base.'Democrats are now heavily reliant on a coalition of college-educated voters, a group that consistently turns out to vote, even in lower-stakes elections.

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