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In presidential elections, the difference in the speed with which votes are tallied can cause a candidate’s early advantage in a state to change as more localities report their results in the hours and, sometimes, days after polls close on Election Day.
In 2020, the phenomenon known as the “red mirage” or “blue shift” turned the hue of several seemingly red states — where then-Republican President Donald Trump appeared to be in the lead over the then-Democratic candidate Joe Biden — blue. Trump and his allies responded by linking that change in states including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania to baseless claims of widespread voter fraud involving mail-in ballots.There are two trends that help explain the range of reporting speeds for election results: Republicans in smaller counties voting in person vs. Democrats in larger counties voting by absentee ballot.In presidential elections, that difference can cause a candidate’s early advantage in a state to change as more localities report their results in the hours and, sometimes, days after polls close on Election Day.” turned the hue of several seemingly red states — where then-Republican President Donald Trump appeared to be in the lead over the then-Democratic candidate Joe Biden — blue. Trump and his allies responded by linking that change in states including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania to baseless claims of widespread voter fraud involving mail-in ballots. In fact, however, it stemmed from partisan divides in where voters live and their preferred way of casting ballots, plus, in some states, laws that slow the tallying of votes.Republicans in smaller counties voting in person vs. Democrats in larger counties voting by absentee ballotgenerally more Democratic-leaning Republicans tend to prefer voting in person, while Democrats have driven the rise of mail voting since the pandemic election of 2020,by the MIT Election Data and Science Lab concluded that the differences in how quickly counties reported their results were “driven by the fact that smaller and more rural counties, which favored Trump, could report their ballots before the counties with hundreds of precincts and hundreds of thousands of voters.” It took longer for many of those larger counties to report results because of the big batches of mail-in ballots they received, the analysis found. In some states, allowingAnd there’s another wonky factor to consider — whether a state’s laws allow election officials to process mail-in ballots before Election Day.It involves all of the steps needed to prepare mail-in ballots for scanning, including checking voters’ signatures on return envelopes, opening those envelopes and flattening the ballots inside., and the MIT analysis found that states with laws that allow pre-canvassing before Election Day were faster to report results in 2020. For this year’s presidential election, the states that do not allow processing before Election Day include two key swing states:there are likely to be reporting delays because hundreds of thousands of voters are not expected to drop off their mail ballots until Election Day. Still, some election watchers say the experience election officials have gained with mail-in ballots since the 2020 election, and some 2020 mail-in voters returning to in-person voting, could help reduce the time needed to finish counting this year. But especially if the presidential race turns out to be close in any states, extra patience may be needed before voters see the true colors of the 2024 electoral map.
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