Silver Bulletin gives Trump 50.2 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, his first lead in the model since September 19.
Former President Donald Trump received a boost from polling guru Nate Silver, whose presidential model, which tracks polling data and electoral trends, now favors the Republican to win the election.The latest projections from the Silver Bulletin model show Trump holding a slight edge in the Electoral College, with a 50.2 percent chance of winning compared to Vice President Kamala Harris' 49.5 percent, despite Harris leading significantly in the popular vote probability at 75 percent.
These states, which were pivotal in Trump's 2016 victory and his loss to Joe Biden in 2020, are once again proving to be crucial in determining the outcome of the election.Yet, Silver cautions that the lead will continue to shift, likening it to a '110-109 basketball game in the final minutes of the fourth quarter.'Silver's model shows that Trump has gained 1.6 percentage points in Wisconsin, 0.9 points in Michigan and 0.4 points in Pennsylvania over the past week.
United States Latest News, United States Headlines
Similar News:You can also read news stories similar to this one that we have collected from other news sources.
Donald Trump Surges in Top Election ForecastThe prediction model from 538 gives Trump a 45 percent of victory, up from 39 percent in mid-September.
Read more »
Kamala Harris Surges Ahead of Donald Trump in New National PollLast week, the vice president was tied with Trump at 49 percent in a similar Napolitan News Service poll.
Read more »
Nate Silver Would Rather Be Kamala Harris Than Donald Trump Right NowBased on current forecasts from 270toWin, Harris has 226 electoral college votes and Trump has 219.
Read more »
Three Swing States Have Shifted to Donald Trump in Past Week—Nate Silver ModelHarris needs 44 electoral votes from the toss-up states this year to win, while Trump would need 51.
Read more »
19 States Have Shifted to Donald Trump in Past Week—Nate Silver ModelPollster Nate Silver's forecast shows that the former president has made marginal gains in six swing states during the past week.
Read more »
Kamala Harris Needs 'Weird' Voters to Beat Donald Trump: Nate SilverSilver says Harris must secure more young, independent and non-college-educated voters, who are more likely to be undecided.
Read more »