The prediction model from 538 gives Trump a 45 percent of victory, up from 39 percent in mid-September.
Donald Trump's chances of beating Kamala Harris in the 2024 election have improved in recent days, although the vice president is still considered the slight favorite overall, according to forecasters.In the latest prediction model update from 538, formerly FiveThirtyEight, Harris has a 55-in-100 chance of winning the majority of the Electoral College votes, with Trump given a 45-in-100 chance.
538 is currently forecasting Harris is marginally ahead in all three of these states.The NYT/Siena poll surveyed 713 registered voters in Arizona, 682 registered voters in Georgia and 682 registered voters in North Carolina from September 17-21. The results have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points in Arizona, plus or minus 4.6 percentage points in Georgia, and plus or minus 4.2 percentage points in North Carolina.
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