The outcome of the by-election at Makerfield in Greater Manchester will determine the fate of the beleaguered Labour Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, and the political destiny of Britain for years to come. The contest is like a general election in microcosm, with the Labour candidate Andy Burnham and Reform UK's main challenger, Burnham's main challenger, facing off.
In the long history of British democracy, there has never been a more important by-election than the epic contest now underway at Makerfield in Greater Manchester .
The outcome will not only decide the fate of the beleaguered Labour Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, but could also determine the political destiny of our country for years to come. In effect, Makerfield is like a general election in microcosm. If the Labour candidate Andy Burnham wins, the consequences will be disastrous. The bumptious, egocentric Manchester Mayor, known as the ‘King of the North’, will immediately commit regicide against Starmer, followed by his Coronation.
Once installed in Downing Street, Burnham will drag the Labour Government rapidly to the Left; taxes and welfare spending will soar, accompanied by submission to the EU and militant trade unions. From price controls to nationalisation, socialism will be back with a vengeance. At the same time, the Left will consolidate their stranglehold on office by measures like the expansion of state bureaucracy, the extension of powers to devolved assemblies and the introduction of votes for 16-year-olds.
But the picture would be very different if Reform UK, Burnham’s main challenger, were to triumph. Such a victory would galvanise the forces of conservatism, and provide real hope that the tide of socialism can be turned. With Burnham defeated, Labour’s leadership crisis would deepen. Unable to defend its traditional heartland, vulnerable in every part of the nation, the party would face a bleak future.
But this crucial win cannot be achieved if the centre-right is divided. According to the first opinion poll conducted at Makerfield, the contest is on a knife-edge, with Labour on 43 per cent, just 3 points ahead of Reform on 40 per cent. A few votes either way could settle the result.
Given the potential tightness of the fight and the massive implications for Britain’s governance, all those involved in the challenge to Labour must show an awareness of their responsibility, putting the needs of the country before the demands of their own egos. If the Labour candidate Andy Burnham wins, the bumptious, egocentric Manchester Mayor will immediately commit regicide against Starmer, writes Leo McKinstry. Even when handed this golden opportunity to cause serious damage to Labour, the centre-right remains divided.
Neither Reform UK nor the Conservative Party seem willing to talk about a pact, despite a shared mutual interest in bringing down Labour. Perhaps even more worrying is the insistence by the fringe right-wing party Restore Britain, led by the maverick Great Yarmouth MP Rupert Lowe, on running its own candidate in Makerfield. It is an exercise in destructive frivolity which can achieve nothing except to bolster Labour.
Indeed, Rebecca Shepherd, the Restore candidate chosen for this mission, could not be supporting Burnham more if she were his paid agent. Last weekend’s opinion poll put her Restore vote at just 7 per cent, way behind Labour and Reform - so Ms Shepherd has no chance of winning. But, in this wafer-thin marginal, she has every chance of creating a sufficiently large fracture in the anti-Labour vote to allow Burnham to sneak over the line.
What makes Restore’s stance so ridiculous is that there are no great issues of principle that divide Lowe’s party from Nigel Farage’s Reform movement. They both agree on the need for stronger borders, far more deportations, lower taxes, reductions in welfare and a pro-business environment. It is a personality clash, not policy, that has put Lowe on the path of sabotage.
A Eurosceptic and successful businessman, reportedly worth £30 million, Rupert Lowe was once a Tory member but left over the Maastricht Treaty, which heralded the creation of the European Union. Having joined UKIP, he was elected to the European parliament in 2019 under the banner of Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party which became Reform UK. At first he and Farage got on reasonably well but friction arose between them when Lowe was elected as an MP in 2024.
Self-important and fuelled by delusions of grandeur, he embarked on a collision course with the Reform leader, sniping at Farage and openly questioning his style of leadership. In March 2025, he told this paper that Reform UK was ‘a protest party led by a Messiah. ’ The situation was inflamed by his association with the idiosyncratic tycoon, Elon Musk, the world’s richest man.
It was Musk who also decided that Farage ‘does not have what it takes’ to be the leader of the right in Britain and instead anointed Lowe for the role. On Sunday, Musk shared a tweet from Lowe about the by-election, saying: ‘Restore Britain. ’ The Tesla CEO’s cheerleading, which showed no respect for the realities of British democracy, fed Lowe’s vanity, particularly by raising his online profile and giving him a vast global reach
British Democracy Labour Prime Minister Keir Starmer Makerfield Greater Manchester By-Election Epic Contest Labour Candidate Andy Burnham Reform UK Conservative Party Fringe Right-Wing Party Restore Britain Rupert Lowe Nigel Farage Brexit Party European Union European Parliament Maastricht Treaty Tesla CEO Elon Musk British Democracy Labour Prime Minister Keir Starmer Makerfield Greater Manchester By-Election Epic Contest Labour Candidate Andy Burnham Reform UK Conservative Party Fringe Right-Wing Party Restore Britain Rupert Lowe Nigel Farage Brexit Party European Union European Parliament Maastricht Treaty Tesla CEO Elon Musk
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