A new report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) warns that the extensive use of US munitions during the 39-day bombing campaign against Iran has depleted stockpiles, creating a window of vulnerability for a potential conflict with China in the Western Pacific. The Pentagon acknowledges the shortfall and is accelerating production of key systems like Tomahawk missiles, Patriot interceptors, and THAAD, but full replenishment will take years, stretching into 2030 and beyond. This comes as the US strategic focus shifts to the Indo-Pacific and concerns grow over China's military buildup and its 2027 Taiwan invasion timeline.
used during its 39-day bombing campaign against Iran, according to a new estimate from a D.C. -based think tank, emphasizing the concern from experts that the Iran war could impact a possible future conflict withhas said it could take “months and years … depending on the weapon system,” to refill U.S. stockpiles, though the department is trying to scale up the defense industrial base’s capacity to manufacture these munitions to exceed where they were at the start of the war.
“The United States has enough munitions for any plausible scenario in the Iran war, but the depleted inventories have created a window of vulnerability for a potential Western Pacific conflict,” the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ new The administration has prioritized the effort to expand the defense industrial base’s production capacity, which is a contributing factor to the historic $1.5 trillion defense budget request. The Pentagon has recognized the department’s own culpability in creating the shortfall.
Officials have often pointed to how the department would give out short-term contracts, which created difficult decisions due to the uncertainty that it may not carry over into future years. In several instances, the department’s Fiscal Year 2027 request for certain munitions is two or three times the amount delivered during FY2026.
The military used more than 1,000 Tomahawk missiles during the war, much higher than the department’s request for the production of 785 Tomahawk missiles after only getting 207 delivered last year, according to the report. The defense industrial base is currently able to produce roughly 600 Tomahawk missiles annually at its current capacity, but the agreed-upon goal is for the production of 1,000 of them annually.
The department will reach its pre-war level of Tomahawks in late 2030 or early 2031. Of the last ten fiscal years, the department has procured an average of 86 Tomahawk missiles annually, according to the report. The military also used roughly 1,060-1,430 Patriot missiles, which are a part of the sophisticated air defense system, during the war in Iran. The department’s FY2026 request, 3,203 Patriot missiles, dwarfs the FY2026 delivered total of 172.
It will take until mid-2029 to replenish the Patriot stockpiles. The Biden administration gave Ukraine the Patriot missile defense systems as well. In January, the Pentagon announced a deal with Lockheed Martin to quadruple the number of Terminal High Altitude Area Defense interceptor production from 96 to 400 annually. The report states the department will not replace all of the THAAD interceptors used in the Iran war until “the end of calendar year 2029.
” “The time needed to rebuild those inventories has thus become a major concern,” the report noted, emphasizing the time between the completion of an agreement and how long it will take for a defense company to actually produce and deliver the capability to the department.
“I take issue with the characterization that munitions are depleted in a public forum. That’s not true,” he told lawmakers in a House Appropriations Defense Subcommittee hearing earlier this month.
“Ultimately, we have all the munitions needed to execute what we need to execute, and we’re going to ensure that we supercharge that in the future. ”“I think first of all, the munitions issue has been foolishly and unhelpfully overstated. We know exactly what we have. We have plenty of what we need.
And the reason we’re accelerating a lot of this is because the department’s been static in how it does this kind of business, not to mention the amount that was given to Ukraine for years and years,” he added. Over the last several years, the Pentagon has sought to reduce its attention on the Middle East, to instead prioritize the Indo-Pacific region, and the threat from China.
Beijing has modernized and expanded its military capabilities, and leaders have said publicly that they want their military prepared to launch an invasion of Taiwan by 2027.
Munitions Depletion Iran War CSIS Report Tomahawk Missiles Patriot Missiles THAAD Production Pentagon Defense Industrial Base Western Pacific China Threat Taiwan Invasion Stockpile Replenishment
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