The Mandalorian and Grogu, the first theatrical installment in the Star Wars franchise in seven years, debuted with a 3-day gross of $81.7 million, which was the worst in the franchise since 2002's Attack of the Clones. However, its sophomore drop of more than 60% isn't surprising, considering the fact that blockbuster movies that open big have a long way to fall. The movie is projected to earn a 3-day total of $25 million by the end of its sophomore weekend, dragging behind 2018's Solo, which was the first live-action Star Wars movie to flop in theaters. Despite its rough box office performance, The Mandalorian and Grogu has a safety net, as it will earn additional revenue from merchandising on top of its impending streaming, video on demand, and physical media releases.
The force is not with The Mandalorian and Grogu. 2026's The Mandalorian and Grogu, which is the first theatrical installment in the Star Wars franchise in seven years (since 2019's The Rise of Skywalker), is a continuation of the three-season Disney+ series The Mandalorian following reformed bounty hunter Din Djarin (Pedro Pascal) and his ward, the force-wielding baby Grogu, going on a brand-new adventure.
The movie, which was directed by the show's creator Jon Favreau, debuted over Memorial Day weekend with a 3-day gross of $81.7 million, which was the worst in the franchise since 2002's Attack of the Clones ($80 million, not adjusted for inflation). Per Deadline, as of Saturday morning, The Mandalorian and Grogu is projected to earn a 3-day total of $25 million by the end of its sophomore weekend at the domestic box office.
This sees it dropping a brutal 69% from its debut weekend. In a way, this rough drop of more than 60% isn't surprising. Blockbuster movies that open big have a long way to fall, especially in the summer and holiday seasons, when new tentpoles arrive in theaters every weekend to compete with holdover titles.
Every Star Wars movie in history has debuted during one of those two seasons, and two of the last three installments have had drops over 60%, with the previous record-holder being 2017's The Last Jedi at 67.5%. Below, see a breakdown of the week 2 drop for every live-action movie in the Star Wars franchise (except the first and second movies, which didn't have reliable week 2 box office reporting at the time).
However, considering the fact that The Mandalorian and Grogu began at a precariously low point, this sophomore drop is much more dangerous than the drop for The Last Jedi, which debuted with two and a half times the cash. The fact that its sophomore frame sees it continuing to drag behind 2018's Solo (which was the first live-action Star Wars movie to flop in theaters) is not necessarily a good sign.
That movie's $393.1 million haul failed to make up for its reported $300 million budget. While the reported budget of The Mandalorian and Grogu is much slimmer, hitting a more reasonable $165 million, that could still place its estimated break-even point as high as $413 million (this is because movies often need to earn two and a half times their price tags because theaters keep half of ticket sales and publicity costs aren't factored into production budgets).
Considering the fact that Solo couldn't crack $400 million worldwide despite its superior sophomore drop, it seems unlikely that this new spinoff will be able to do so. However, like all Star Wars movies, The Mandalorian and Grogu has a safety net. While it likely won't break even in theaters, it will earn additional revenue from merchandising on top of its impending streaming, video on demand, and physical media releases.
This could ultimately help push it over the edge, though it may not ever hit a total large enough for the titular duo to return to the big screen
Star Wars The Mandalorian And Grogu Box Office Performance Blockbuster Movies Summer And Holiday Seasons Live-Action Movies Prequel(S) Sequel(S)
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