Our experts dive in to the lines and player props that offer value for Week 10, and share their tips and bets.
Value is value, no matter where -- or how -- you find it. And that's what we'll aim to do each week in this space -- find value. Ben Solak, Seth Walder and Matt Bowen bring different perspectives into how they approach sports betting.
Solak leans on his expertise in player evaluation and the X's and O's to find edges, while Walder relies on statistical models to pick out plus-expected value bets. Bowen, a former NFL safety, predicts positive matchups and game winners from tape study and his understanding of the league. These weekly picks will not be limited to a certain bet type. From spreads and money lines to totals or even defensive player props, a good price might be found anywhere.Bowen: I'll take the 49ers and the points at home. Back in Week 5, coach Kyle Shanahan had passing game answers for the Rams' defense, as, I'm confident in Shanahan's ability to scheme up the Rams' split-safety coverages. And that L.A. defense will see an upgraded San Francisco run game this time around with tight endWe're not getting the best of this line, as it moved across -4 over the course of this week. So long as we can get it before -5, I think there's still value.. Of course, he and the Vikings won as a 9-point underdog in Detroit. Nothing about McCarthy's performance in that game, however, has me changing my sentiment. Minnesota had five scoring drives, three of which began at the Lions' 35-yard line or closer. Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores and the defense had a wind-back-the-clock game, asis a much, much different challenge to pressure with the blitz. Since the start of last season, Jackson is first in EPA per dropback and success rate against the blitz -- both by comfortable margins. Whereas quarterbacks such as Goff shred the blitz with quick releases and good post-snap reads, Jackson has the athleticism to create big plays even when the defense manufactures free rushers. And if the Vikings elect to play drop coverage and spy Jackson, as previous defenses have done with success, expect Baltimore to lean back in to that running game. No defense has faced more carries or given up more yards to offenses running the ball out of multi-tight-end sets than the Vikings. Still, at its core, this is a bet fading McCarthy and a Vikings offense that will remain a high-sack, high-interception unit until McCarthy is able to settle his game down. I will also be onIt's worth keeping a close eye on the forecast in this game. With temperatures in the 30s and a chance of precipitation, we might see our first flakes of the NFL season over Soldier Field on Sunday afternoon. But the chance is currently low enough and expected snowfall light enough that, if indeed there is snow, I'm willing to buy the number now. The Giants lug the league's worst run defense -- 32nd in EPA per rush, 30th in success rate -- into Chicago. We've seen Chicago recently dominate some poor run defenses with high point totals. They'll score fast on the ground, too, because of how explosive their running game is.reps and confidence. If they're in a trailing script, as we expect, they'll also get the benefit of facing the league's 31st-ranked pass defense by success rate. Waiting on more weather information is a fine approach here, but be aware that 47 is an important number in totals, so getting the hook on 46.5 is well worth the risk of a poor meteorological break.. Under coach Todd Bowles, this Bucs defense will disguise, change the picture and bring pressure from both the second and third levels. Tampa Bay owns a blitz rate of 31.9% , so expect Bowles to heat up Drake Maye in this one. With that defense, plusI've been bullish on the Patriots and remain bullish on them for the rest of the season. But one of the reasons for Patriots excitement was the weakness of their schedule. This particular week, they don't get that crutch. The Patriots have played nine unique opponents through their 7-2 start. Only one opponent has an above-average EPA per dropback or dropback success rate on the season. The Patriots have played the five worst offenses by points per drive this season. As such, their defense is likely overrated in the market. While the Buccaneers have not been the consistent flamethrower they were on offense last season, they are still 12th in EPA per dropback and expect to get right tackleback for this game. Tampa Bay is also coming off a bye, and, having endured a constant trickle of injuries week over week, will benefit from an additional week's worth of rest. The game plan should be sharper, and the nagging injuries should be less problematic. I think both the full-game total and Buccaneers' team total are good bets, but I lean Buccaneers here for the potential of a brutal Maye turnover that can affect the Patriots scoreboard negatively and the Bucs positively. doesn't clear the protocol by Sunday, the Jaguars offense could be without their top two tight ends and top three receivers . The Jaguars' defense gave up a concerning performance to the Raiders' passing attack in the second half, but that was without linebackeris confirmed out because of a quad injury, meaning even three-point drives are less automatic in Houston, as free agent The Texans are an astonishing 17-4 to the under in home games with coach DeMeco Ryans, and the defense should deliver an even more passionate performance while protecting a backup quarterback. It's a low total, but not low enough to pass on.completed 78.6% of his passes, throwing for three scores. And the Bills were both efficient and explosive running the ball. Let's take this spread down to -3.5 points here versus a 2-7 Miami team that looked disinterested at times in the Week 9 blowout loss to Baltimore. On the other end, Ben Johnson's offense has found some juice with its rushing attack, as the Bears are averaging 144.4 yards per game on the ground . That works versus a Giants defense allowing a league-worst 5.5 YPC. Yes,still needs to develop a stronger sense of timing as a thrower while delivering the ball with more precise location. But Johnson can still set up Williams with explosive-play opportunities in the pass game. Let's bump this spread up to +2.5 points. The Bears cover on Sunday at Soldier Field.Allen has rushed for two touchdowns in back-to-back games, so let's bet on the quarterback to find the end zone as a runner for the third straight game. Whether that is a designed carry or a second-reaction scramble attempt, keep an eye on Allen when the Bills move the ball into the low red zone area of the field at Miami. Let's stay with Allen and take the rushing over as well. Allen has at least six carries in four of his past five games and has rushed for more than 30 yards in five games this season. This seems like a game Allen takes over.We have so little data on Shough in the pros that we're more or less flying blind on what kind of quarterback we ought to expect him to be. But the model assumes, until it learns otherwise, that anyone without much data is a solidly below-average player -- and so it treats Shough as if he has a high interception rate. And yet it sees +160 on the under as a value; the model makes the fair price +115. Why the difference? Perhaps the market thinks Shough is an extreme interception risk as opposed to just a high one. But there are two other factors working in our favor. First, the opponent: The Saints are playing the Panthers and are only 5.5-point underdogs, which means fewer game script issues and desperate passing situations are expected than the Saints would have against a better team. Second, New Orleans is a run-first team. The Saints have a negative-7% pass rate over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats, which ranks 28th in the NFL. Put it all together, and a Shough interception is far from a lock. I'm doubling up Shough unders, and it's for some of the same reasons. Most notably, the fact that the Saints have a negative pass rate over expectation. That means that given the game context -- such as score, down and distance, and clock -- the Saints run the ball more than the average team. Here's something else: The Panthers are even more run heavy, with a negative-10% pass rate over expectation that is lowest in the league. That means both teams will be churning the clock when they have the ball, helping our unders. My model prices this attempts prop at -167.Dart has thrown for over 220 yards in only one game this season. But this is more about a Bears secondary that is down numbers because of injuries, and this unit looked a step slow on the tape last week versus the Bengals. Dart can make enough throws outside of structure to hit the over here.Williams rushed for 53 yards in the Week 9 win over Cincy, and he has had at least 24 yards on the ground in his past two games. Williams is more than willing to eject from the pocket, extending plays as a runner. With the Giants' edge rushers, look for Williams to pull the ball down and move on Sunday.This feels like a smash week for Robinson through the air. The Falcons are expected to play without starting left guardis day-to-day because of a foot injury. The strength of this Colts defense is its defensive line, especially on the interior , so I think some positive regression could work in our favor here, too.In that I like the Ravens to win big, I also like Hill to stay under his receiving yards total. Backs see their receiving usage spike as big underdogs and diminish as big favorites, and if the Ravens are nursing a second-half lead, I don't expect Hill to see any targets. In the past two games, against Chicago and Miami , Hill has run only six and seven routes, respectively. Hill also gets low route usage because he's such a strong back in pass protection. The Vikings, who blitz at one of the heaviest rates in football, often keep the opposing back in the formation by sending extra rushers, for whom the back is responsible. Hill could always burn us with one screen, but if this game follows the expected script, 14.5 is simply too high of a number for his route participation and target depth.The Chargers have overtaken the Cowboys as the most zone-heavy team in the NFL. And so they have become our new target for running back reception props. Leaguewide since 2023, running backs catch passes on 8% of plays against man coverage but on 15% of plays against zone coverage -- almost double the rate! So we're backing Warren against the Chargers under the premise that the market hasn't fully baked in the man-zone splits for running backs.Loveland scored two touchdowns last week in the win over the Bengals, and he has seen an end zone target in back-to-back games. With Loveland's ability to flex from the formation -- aligning to the backside of 3x1 sets -- Johnson can scheme up his rookie tight end in red zone isolation matchups versus the Giants.Warren caught five passes in the Week 9 loss to the Steelers, but he totaled just 26 yards receiving. However, Warren has topped the 50-yard receiving mark in four of his past six games, and the Colts can scheme to get the rookie tight end loose on movement concepts . Yes, the Falcons' defense has really good numbers versus tight ends this season, but I'm betting on Warren's rugged catch-and-run ability on Sunday in Berlin.
Houston-Texans Adams-Davante Baltimore-Ravens Warren-Tyler Dart-Jaxson Fields-Justin Jacksonville-Jaguars Robinson-Bijan Mooney-Darnell Allen-Josh Chicago-Bears Shough-Tyler Waddle-Jaylen Warren-Jaylen Williams-Caleb News-Nfl Betting Buffalo-Bills San-Francisco-49Ers Miami-Dolphins Nfl Tampa-Bay-Buccaneers Loveland-Colston New-York-Giants Hill-Justice News-Sports-Betting 18125288
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