So far in the 2024 election, Silver writes that the Democratic Party is making better risk management decisions, starting with the choice to force President Biden out of the race and nominate Vice President Kamala Harris.
says that risk-takers are controlling society. Silver is an election forecaster, and admits that political institutions don’t take as many risks as sectors like technology or finance.,” he writes that the Democratic Party’s decision to oust President Biden and nominate Vice President Kamala Harris instead was a good risk management decision.
“Whenever people put money on the line, I tend to think that actually works,” he says. “That's kind of how the capitalist economy works. And that's kind of how Las Vegas is very hard to beat.”Do people look at election models and forecasts with too much certainty? “I think there's a little bit of risk of Democrats becoming complacent. Harris has had momentum, and she'll probably, frankly, rise further in the polls after the convention, but when we get to after Labor Day and the first debate on Sept. 10, then Trump still has an advantage if it's close in the Electoral College, as he did in 2016.
“She didn't wrap up the presumptive nomination within 24 hours on accident. She was very prepared. She was heady, in the moment, and willing to take a gamble and move kind of full speed ahead.”“I think you have to give Trump some credit for the 2016 primary, where he realizes that, ‘I can actually run against the unpopular Republican establishment and have a more populist bent, and beat out 16 other candidates.“Trump, like Joe Biden is really up there in age. He's 78.
“I freelance for the New York Times. I've worked in some of these institutions myself. I do not think that every journalist has a left-wing bias, but I think some do. And I think news consumers on issues like coverage of the lab leak, for example, were now the the official position of the Biden White House. Different agencies think different things, but the position is that we don't know.
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