Polling analyst Nate Silver changed his prediction from a Trump electoral victory to a “toss up.'
Polling and data guru Nate Silver updated his prediction to 'toss up' two days after he said former President Trump was electorally favored to win the White House in November. Silver, a prominent elections analyst and statistician, released his first election model since Vice President Kamala Harris became the presumptive Democratic nominee on Tuesday. He predicted Harris would win the popular vote, but called her 'a modest underdog to Trump in the Electoral College.
But on Thursday, Silver changed his prediction. 'The presidential election is a toss-up,' his headline on Substack read. 'When we launched the presidential model on June 26 — in the lifetime ago when Joe Biden was the Democratic nominee — the headline in the post that introduced the model was that the election wasn’t a toss-up.
With the election still 96 days away, Silver said polls, while 'more stable than they used to be,' are still 'likely to gyrate back and forth a number of times between now and Nov. 5.' Fox News' Joshua Nelson contributed to this report.
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