A warning to Donald Trump and JD Vance: Tread carefully when it comes to women, including Vice President Kamala Harris. All signs point to a tight race in November, and the GOP ticket is already behind with women: In five battleground states, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Harris leads by 9 points or more with the ladies.
In his most recent assessment, Silver included a slew of polling averages that gave Trump slight advantages nationally and in most of the battleground states, albeit not in Wisconsin, where Harris was ahead.Still, Silver’s analysis showed Harris rapidly gaining ground on Trump in most polling. His model also gave Harris a 53.5% chance of winning the popular vote compared to Trump’s 46.5% chance.
Last month, his assessment, which was based on 40,000 simulations run through the model, pegged Biden with a 47.2% chance of edging out Trump with the national popular vote. Silver touted his model as a “direct descendent” of the FiveThirtyEight election forecast. Silver founded FiveThirtyEight, which is named after the 538 votes available in the Electoral College, and departed from it last year.
Preliminary polling has generally shown tightening in the race, but less than 100 days out from election night, pollsters are racing to recalibrate for the new dynamics of the contest.aggregate of polls, but battleground state polling is still somewhat light compared to the litany of surveys scoring a Trump v. Biden matchup.
2024 Presidential Election Donald Trump Joe Biden Drops Out Of Presidential Race 2024 Kamala Harris Polls
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