Take the Trojans spread for Saturday's pick, odds & expert prediction against the Fighting Illini for USC vs. Illinois on September 27.
If a team is never as good or as bad as it looked in its last game, then Illinois shouldn’t be judged too harshly for last week’s 63-10 blowout loss at Indiana. The concern, however, is that the same issues that doomed the Illini in that game could be even more exposed against USC.
lean heavily on the Trojans’ passing attack, especially as Illinois continues to struggle in a defensive area that was once considered a strength.used to have a stellar secondary. Particularly when Ryan Walters was the defensive coordinator for the first two years of Bret Bielema’s tenure in Champaign, the Illini excelled on the defensive back end. A combination of time and injuries has now turned that strength into a weakness, one that had Indiana head coach Curt Cignetii eager to take the top off Illinois’s defense. Cignetti had seen Duke come so close to exploiting that defense, finding a 51% success rate on dropbacks despite four turnovers. Cignetti knew the Blue Devils blew that game more than the Illini won it. And he trusted the Hoosiers not to make the same mistake. “Put the Duke game on,” Cignetti said after last weekend’s rout. “The difference in that game was Duke turned it over.” Indiana proceeded to enjoy successes on 64% of its dropbacks, adding 0.77 expected points per dropback, a rate that is close to the logical maximum. This is probably the last week I can cite back to Duke's loss to Illinois as reason to doubt Illinois, but if Curt Cignetti could do it, I can do it this last time as reason to bet USC on Saturday, right?’s passing offense has both a better success rate and a better EPA per dropback than Indiana’s this season. The success rates are actually rather similar, but it can be argued the Trojans are about three times as explosive as the Hoosiers are through the air.. He can take solace knowing some defensive backs will be healthier this week than last. None of that will save the Illini. Illinois's secondary has a couple returning pieces that were not in the fold a week ago, but that will not be enough asAdding his rushing yardage prop is simply recognizing that number is too low, as he as cleared it in three of four games this season.As Indiana abused Illinois's pass defense, the Hoosiers did not lean on their tight ends. The Illini weakness right now is in its defensive backs, and exploiting those yields greater results. USC should follow suit, even as it comes at tight endLet’s ponder a reasonable game state that would make an upset seem likely. Illinois’s defense has not fared well enough where it matters most to genuinely suggest USC could repeatedly stub its toe in scoring territory. And Jayden Maiava has not thrown an interception yet this season on 96 attempts.There is no such thing as a sure thing, but in this exact matchup, the Trojans look close to it.If Illinois can shorten this game, then perhaps it can stem USC’s passing attack. The hurdle in that regard is that the Illini are no better than okay when running the ball, ranking No. 37 in rushing success rate and No. 40 in EPA per rush attempt,Though this total has ticked up to 60.5 from its opener of 59.5, one must trust Lincoln Riley does not have the same vindictive tilt that Cignetti does in running up the score on opponents. He does not need to. Cignetti knows Indiana’s best path into the College Football Playoff is repeated routs. USC just needs to be USC. And Cignetti knows Indiana is recruiting many of the same players that Illinois is. USC is chasing a higher tier of players. So if Riley is not going to run up the score, trust in any Over is trust in Illinois to find some productivity, and that seems foolish.: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links. Douglas Farmer spends his days thinking about college football and his nights thinking about the NBA. His betting habits and coverage follow that same pattern. He covered Notre Dame football for various outlets from 2008 to 2024, most notably spending eight seasons as NBC Sports’ beat writer on the Irish. That was also when his gambling focus took off. Knowing there were veteran beat writers with three decades more experience than he had, Douglas found his niche by best recognizing Notre Dame’s standing in each year’s national landscape, a complex tapestry most easily understood and remembered via betting odds. In 2021, that interest created a freelance opportunity with Covers, a role that eventually led to Douglas joining the company full-time in 2023. In the fall, Douglas will place five or six dozen bets each week, a disproportionate amount via BetRivers because the operator tends to have lines slightly different than the rest of the market. The same can be said of Circa Sports’ futures markets. While Douglas is an avid NBA fan and covers the league throughout the year, the vast majority of his bets are on college football, because that is the biggest key to sports betting: Know what you do not know.Copyright © 1995 - 2025 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved. 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