Take USC's spread for Saturday's pick, odds & expert prediction against Illinois on September 27.
If no team is as good or as bad as its most recent game, then the Illinois Fighting Illini should not be judged too harshly for their face-plant in a 63-10 loss at Indiana last week. The worry, though, is that what ruined the Illini’s chances a week ago could be further emphasized by the USC Trojans this week.
My USC vs. Illinois predictions entirely trust the Trojans’ passing game, as the Illini look more and more susceptible in an area that used to be a strength.used to have a stellar secondary. Particularly when Ryan Walters was the defensive coordinator for the first two years of Bret Bielema’s tenure in Champaign, the Illini excelled on the defensive back end. A combination of time and injuries has now turned that strength into a weakness, one that had Indiana head coach Curt Cignetii eager to take the top off Illinois’s defense. Cignetti had seen Duke come so close to exploiting that defense, finding a 51% success rate on dropbacks despite four turnovers. Cignetti knew the Blue Devils blew that game more than the Illini won it. And he trusted the Hoosiers not to make the same mistake. “Put the Duke game on,” Cignetti said after last weekend’s rout. “The difference in that game was Duke turned it over.” Indiana proceeded to enjoy successes on 64% of its dropbacks, adding 0.77 expected points per dropback, a rate that is close to the logical maximum. This is probably the last week I can cite back to Duke's loss to Illinois as reason to doubt Illinois, but if Curt Cignetti could do it, I can do it this last time as reason to bet USC on Saturday, right?’s passing offense has both a better success rate and a better EPA per dropback than Indiana’s this season. The success rates are actually rather similar, but it can be argued the Trojans are about three times as explosive as the Hoosiers are through the air.. He can take solace knowing some defensive backs will be healthier this week than last. None of that will save the Illini. Illinois's secondary has a couple returning pieces that were not in the fold a week ago, but that will not be enough asAdding his rushing yardage prop is simply recognizing that number is too low, as he as cleared it in three of four games this season.As Indiana abused Illinois's pass defense, the Hoosiers did not lean on their tight ends. The Illini weakness right now is in its defensive backs, and exploiting those yields greater results. USC should follow suit, even as it comes at tight end: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links. Douglas Farmer spends his days thinking about college football and his nights thinking about the NBA. His betting habits and coverage follow that same pattern. He covered Notre Dame football for various outlets from 2008 to 2024, most notably spending eight seasons as NBC Sports’ beat writer on the Irish. That was also when his gambling focus took off. Knowing there were veteran beat writers with three decades more experience than he had, Douglas found his niche by best recognizing Notre Dame’s standing in each year’s national landscape, a complex tapestry most easily understood and remembered via betting odds. In 2021, that interest created a freelance opportunity with Covers, a role that eventually led to Douglas joining the company full-time in 2023. In the fall, Douglas will place five or six dozen bets each week, a disproportionate amount via BetRivers because the operator tends to have lines slightly different than the rest of the market. The same can be said of Circa Sports’ futures markets. While Douglas is an avid NBA fan and covers the league throughout the year, the vast majority of his bets are on college football, because that is the biggest key to sports betting: Know what you do not know.Copyright © 1995 - 2025 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved. If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.
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