If things deteriorate, the blame architecture is already being assembled. NATO is full of cowards, and Europe won't help.
On the morning of Feb. 28, the United States and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury against Iran, killing supreme leaderbeforehand. Allies weren’t brought into the planning. No serious case was laid before the people in the days prior.
Trump made his call, dropped the bombs, and assumed the world would fall in line. It hasn’t, and American consumers are now paying for it at the pump, with little indication that it will get better anytime soon.to carry out the strikes. Top lawmakers were notified shortly before they were launched, primarily a courtesy call, not a conversation. Secretary of State Marco Rubio connected with seven of the eight Gang of Eight members ahead of time, with the Armed Services Committees notified only after the strikes began. Whether Trump was legally required to get authorization is a separate debate with genuine constitutional complexity, as presidents of both parties have stretched commander in chief authority for decades. But consulting Congress and seeking authorization are two different things, and Trump didn’t bother with either in any meaningful sense.. The U.S. launched a major military operation with little to no consultation with its trans-Atlantic partners. Luke Coffey, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, put it plainly: “Effective coalition building cannot be improvised amid a crisis. It requires deliberate planning and buy-in from partners who understand both the risks and the strategic importance of the mission.” Coffey also noted that while the White House suggested it was surprised by Iran’s, that scenario “has long been considered a plausible contingency by the policy community.” The administration walked into a predictable crisis without a coalition because it never built one. Germany’s defense minister offered the most efficient summary of allied sentiment: “This is not our war; we did not start it.” As Quincy Institute vice president Trita Parsi noted, “under normal circumstances, you build a coalition before you go to war, not afterwards.” Trump got the sequencing exactly backward. Now the bill is coming due. Gas prices have surged more than 30% in three weeks, driven by Iran’s near-shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil passes. Stanford economists estimate retail prices could peak near $4.36 per gallon by May, effectively wiping out the larger tax refunds Trump has been touting from the “big beautiful bill.” Morgan Stanley warned the midterm elections “could become more sensitive to cost-of-living concerns if extended conflict keeps energy prices elevated.” Republicans hold slim majorities in both chambers. Trump campaigned on bringing costs down. This is the opposite. Which brings us to a familiar pattern. Trump structured this so that if everything goes well, the credit flows to him. His notification to Congress cited his “responsibility to protect Americans and United States interests.” But if things deteriorate further, the blame architecture is already being assembled.“That’s why I’m so disappointed in NATO. Because this was a test for NATO,” Trump told his Cabinet this week. “We’re going to remember.” That’s the tell. He didn’t ask them before. He’s asking and threatening them after the fact. The consultation happened in reverse order, on purpose. Heads, Trump wins. Tails, everyone else loses. And voters will
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