Facing economic fallout from his bombing campaign, President Trump wants his European frenemies to bail him out. Will they stand up to him this time?
, President Trump faces a growing, self-inflicted economic mess. In response to an aggressive American and Israeli bombing campaign, Iran has largely closed the Strait of Hormuz to shipping, touching off a predictable oil and gas crisis that the Trump administration did.
Now, Trump is demanding that a coalition of countries including France, Germany, and the U.K. — whose leaders he has so often castigated over the years — help bail him out by sweeping mines out of the vital waterway, among other measures. On Sunday, Trumpof his demands that “if there’s no response or if it’s a negative response, I think it will be very bad for the future of NATO.” Though Europe has tried to stay out of the war, Trump has alreadyBritish prime minister Keir Starmer to allow a U.K. air-force base to be used as a staging ground for Iran-bound American planes. Now, faced with U.S. pressure and voters who are unenthusiastic about military conflict, European powers must decide how much ground they want to give. To understand their dilemma better, I spoke withTrump is all but threatening dire consequences for European countries if they don’t help secure the Strait of Hormuz, but there’s no indication yet that Germany or France or any of the other major countries will actually do so. Could this be a turning point for Europe in this conflict — asserting itself more as a sovereign entity, less as a vassal of the U.S.? Let me start by saying I think there are a set of competing constraints and the absence of very hard power that I think ultimately and fundamentally will keep the E.U. divided and weak over Iran. Europe has been quite robust in their opposition to the U.S. and Israeli attacks, but I think ultimately it’s going to be hard for the E.U. to remain fully unified over a war in which they have very little domestic diplomatic influence. Their governments are critical of what they consider a blatant breach of international law, but they’re in this odd position where they are in opposition to what the administration is doing, and they’ve not been hugely involved or consulted — but they see some strategic benefit from the weakening of the regime in Iran. But that works on the assumption that the war ends soon. The longer it goes on, the greater the risks for Europe, political and economic. And so I think now the goal is to apply pressure on the administration to try and bring the war to a speedy conclusion.Well, they have some — they have military assets around the Persian Gulf, naval assets, especially with respect to minesweeping, naval-based air defense, and the protection of shipping lanes. U.S. demands there are already forthcoming and will become more robust. I think the European response will be equally robust. The French view on support for what the administration is asking is contingent on the hot phase of the war being over, and some countries will remain fundamentally opposed. Others, like Starmer and the U.K. government, may even, for symbolic reasons, want to help in order to try to repair bilateral relations, which are incredibly strained between the U.K. and the U.S. But isn’t the war very unpopular in Europe? I can’t see how it would help someone like Starmer domestically, where he’s already very weak. Well, I think they will to some extent downplay their concerns to maintain bilateral relations with Washington. That, I think, is the most visible position of Europe’s informal E3 group — France, Germany, and the U.K. All three have ultimately settled on positions that warn against a protracted and expanding war while indirectly supporting the war effort for defensive purposes, like protection of allies in the Gulf or, in the case of Friedrich Merz, even I think that is again being done with a view to risks that exist in other theaters where the Europeans are vulnerable. There is a lot of concern about what is happening in the Middle East negatively affecting the position of Ukraine relative to Russia. You’re seeing that with the U.S.. So the last thing the Europeans want to do is alienate the administration, which in turn encourages the U.S. to do something more drastic, like pull the plug on supporting Ukraine with intelligence. One of the reasons Putin isis that Russia is seeking leverage. Their offer to the Trump administration, effectively, is “You stop supplying Ukraine with intelligence, and we’ll stop supplying Iran with intelligence.” The Europeans are very concerned about doing anything that will rock the boat with the administration and in turn create a more hostile posture in the Ukraine theater, whose outcome is ultimately existential for European security. But you’re right, there is opposition domestically, with public opinion. And so I do think that the posture will remain limited for defensive purposes while continuing to put pressure on Trump to bring the conflict to resolution.. Europe actually articulated a policy response to the administration. They were clear about consequences, about the escalatory ladder, about there being limits beyond which the administration should not trespass, or it would lead to consequences. I think a combination of that European response, domestic pressure in Congress, and U.S. public opinion forced the administration to stand down. That vector was quite effective. And so the Europeans are being clear: They’re not going to actively engage in the war. They’re not part of the first phase of this campaign. They’re not proactively bombing Iran alongside the Israelis and the Americans. Their engagement is purely defensive to protect allies in the Gulf. They are saying they believe the war is illegal. They are being clear about the basis of the support that they are providing. There’s a risk that the public may believe their governments are being dragged into the war. But that’s the line that governments are ultimately going to have to walk. Outright opposition,–style, is not where the E3 is, because they have these broader considerations that they are thinking about. But this isn’t simply kowtowing to what the administration is demanding and asking for. That’s not where we are. You mentioned Sánchez, the prime minister of Spain. He stands out among these leaders for being much more forcefully opposed to the war and to Trump in general, which I do think helps him domestically. Let’s say the war drags on a bit longer, becomes more of a quagmire, and becomes even more unpopular. Could you see one of the E3 or others following Sánchez’s lead? This is the Trump administration’s mess of its own making, and European governments are going to ultimately allow Trump to own that mess. They’re not going to come in and save him, but they are going to do what’s necessary to limit the implications for Europe. If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, it will severely affect the economic and energy outlook for the E.U. And so there are reasons for these governments to get involved. The U.K. government has made addressing the cost of living the centerpiece of its economic strategy. If interest rates and mortgage rates are now going up on the back of elevated oil prices, it completely undercuts the very mission of the Starmer government. And Europe is an energy importer and very dependent on energy flowing through the strait. For Sánchez, yeah, there is a domestic context. He has articulated very principled positions with respect to the administration. I think many governments in Europe would like to be able to take those positions. But European security is just not in a position where they can do it. Ultimately, the goal of theis strategic autonomy, European collective defense over the medium to long term, and a more diverse set of relationships in the world where the Europeans are less dependent on America. That will enable them over time to take positions like Sánchez. But in Spain, the Russia-Ukraine war, and the externalities that flow from that conflict, are perceived to be more distant. So they believe they can take this more principled position, but for the rest of Europe, I just don’t think they’re in a position to be able to do that right now.Manage preferences.In a TruthSocial post, the president railed against the Court for its tariffs ruling last month, alleging that it is “hurting our Country.”Prosecutors say Gökçe Güven invented deals with Nike and Godiva and forged contracts with fake businesses to grow her rewards-points start-up.It’s still focused on retribution for the Indiana Republicans who wouldn’t go along with Trump’s gerrymandering push.The Defense secretary used his latest briefing to suggest some headlines for the “fake news” while claiming total success in Iran.The mayor has held back his trademark grin in photos with the president of the United States — and now with the president of FIFA.Is the “minor excursion” very complete, ending soon or in a “couple weeks,” or just beginning? Here’s the latest on what Trump feels in his bones.The former senator also allegedly encouraged her beau to take MDMA on a Senate work trip so she could guide him through it.He’s reveling in military fantasies on Truth Social, issuing threats to Iran’s leaders, and showing off photos of himself in uniform .Trump’s unlikely alliance with Mamdani hasn’t kept Republicans from unleashing a wave of Islamophobic attacks on the mayor.What we witnessed on Saturday in Tehran may be the largest release of petrochemical toxins over a civilian population since the Iran-Iraq War.The former House Speaker cut an ad for JFK’s grandson in his race for Congress, but Michael Bloomberg dropped a dueling endorsement.Congress could soon enact a rare bipartisan bill on housing affordability. But the sulking president says, “No one gives a [He’s nothing without his boss, and regardless of how many of his principles the war may violate, the VP will just have to grin and bear it all.Featuring Jake Paul, Trump’s stair phobia, and an update on the Iran war — which we must keep fighting, though it’s also “over” and “we won.”*Sorry, there was a problem signing you up.
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