Another slate is upon us, and we have found some great value in our MLB prop picks for today. Covers_josh is targeting a couple of hitters who he believes will have opposite success at the plate and Justin Steele to mow down the A's.
Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.The Atlanta bats have a decent matchup vs. San Diego’s Nick Martinez, who has seen some velocity drop in his sinker, has a .296 xAVG against, and could see a rise in his flyball rates going forward.
Martinez has a 1.4 mph drop in his sinker from last season and he throws it 24% of the time. He also has a 56% groundball rate which is nine points higher than his career average. He pitches to contact but also sits in the bottom-25% of the league in xAVG, xSLG, BB rate, K rate, and barrel rate. He is, at best, an average MLB starter and faces a tough opponent in Austin Riley and theRiley is hitting third in a loaded lineup and is 2-for-4 vs. Martinez in limited ABs over his career.
When he does get balls in play, he’s getting on base with a .372 BABIP. He’s also hitting at least .294 vs. fastballs, breaking balls, and offspeed pitches, so there is no real weakness in his approach. So far, just six of his 20 hits have gone for extra bases this season after 47% of his hits a season ago went for at least two bags.
Price is a big point here too as bet365 has his Over 1.5 total bases at +155 while FanDuel is at -110. The fair price is closer to +130.
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