Fresh off a brutal Boston Marathon Monday loss, the Red Sox will look to bounce back.
The Twins have yet to post big numbers against southpaws, but they’re top-10 in hard-hit rate against the side, so positive regression should be coming. Meanwhile, Twins starter Sonny Gray is putting together a career year, having posted a 0.53 ERA and 2.32 FIP in 17 innings across three starts.
Gray’s batted-ball profile does show some regression, but it’s minimal compared to Sale’s expected production. Gray also put together these stats against the White Sox, Astros and Royals, so his stats have come against solid competition. It also helps that Gray is a curveball-slider-sinker pitcher, as the Red Sox have a combined -7.2 weighted runs created against the three pitches this year . The Twins are fourth in bullpen ERA and tops in bullpen WHIP , with Jorge Lopez, Griffin Jax, Emilio Pagan, Jorge Alcala, and Jhoan Duran all boasting a sub-2.50 ERA.
The Twins are on the road, but the Red Sox might have the rest disadvantage after dealing with six hours of “game” play on Monday if you include three separate weather delays . Ultimately, the Twins have the advantage in every area of the game, yet the market is pricing these two teams evenly. Twins vs. Red Sox pick
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