Market Analysis by covering: S&P 500, Crude Oil WTI Futures, CBOE Volatility Index. Read 's Market Analysis on Investing.com
Trump delays strikes on Iranian power plants, says talks with Tehran "very good"Stocks finished higher on Monday by roughly 1%, though they had been up significantly more at one point earlier in the session—nearly 2%—following a sharp decline in the price of oil.
The move came amid speculation that the war in Iran may be over soon, given President Trump’s willingness to negotiate. However, those claims appear to have been denied by the Iranian government, leaving investors largely uncertain about what happens next. Regardless,rallied right into its short-term moving average resistance—a level that has capped every attempt at a bounce going back to March—and failed. That tells you a lot. The index has been unable to break through this ceiling, and until it does, it’s hard to get too constructive on the market. The pattern remains the same: rally into resistance, fail, and head lower. That said, the index is no longer in a deeply oversold condition. The RSI has climbed off the lows, and we’ve moved away from the lower Bollinger Band. But “no longer oversold” and “bullish” are two very different things. If the failure at resistance follows through, we could very well be looking at new lows today.. Given the magnitude of the decline in oil and the attempted rally in stocks, you’d expect implied volatility to have come down meaningfully. It didn’t. The VIX barely budged. That’s a signal in itself—it tells you that the options market isn’t positioned in a way that would allow a drop in volatility to provide a tailwind for equities. And the price action confirmed that. The boost from falling vol that you might typically expect in this kind of setup just isn’t there right now. On top of that, there was notable put activity heading into today’s expiration. That kind of positioning raises the odds that the gains don’t stick and the market opens under pressure today. It all comes back to the same story: until oil meaningfully breaks, and until the index can clear its overhead resistance, rallies are going to keep getting sold.Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks. Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes.and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website. It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
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