Market Analysis by covering: Gold Spot US Dollar, S&P 500, Brent Oil Futures, Crude Oil WTI Futures. Read 's Market Analysis on Investing.com
Technical breakdowns accelerated as volatility jumped, but President Trump’s latest comments sparked a massive rally.Intermarket stress signals late-stage risk-off dynamics, and snapback rallies can be intense.
It was another bruising session to start the final full week of the first quarter before President Trump de-escalated the war in Iran. Thecollapsed to below $4100 per ounce, while global bond yields soared to levels not seen since 2011 or even 2009. It’s classic headline-driven correction behavior, withTraders now eye where a bottom could enter the picture. Let’s begin with first principles and reassess the S&P 500 as it tracks for its worst monthly performance going back to September 2022, though we’ll see how much the current bounce has legs.that played out from last December through the current month has given way to the bears. A neckline just above 6700 augurs for a measured move downside price target to 6400, and that near-correction level is very close to view as of early this week. I’ll have 6700 on my radar for a possible resistance spot should the SPX rally further .is in the 20s or 30s. The implied daily S&P 500 swing is close to 1.5%, with a data-light and earnings-light week ahead. All eyes continue to be on President Trump’s social media account.I see some confluence of support in the low 6000s. Notice in the chart below that the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the April 2025 to January 2026 rally is near the aforementioned measured move objective of 6174. Notable, too, is the pre-Liberation Day high of 6147. Finally, a gap lingers at 6025, ironically from immediately after a strong rally following Operation Midnight Hammer. But first, the S&P 500 must reach 6302 to tag technical correction territory.Rarely do markets fit neatly with chart patterns; traders must be open to an array of possibilities. The current pullback has echoes of the summer 2011 European debt crisis—a 19% S&P 500 near-bear market that unfolded from a market top on April 30 to a low on October 4. In August that year, the S&P 500 swung from –6% to +5% to –4% to +4% over a four-day period. Yes, volatility is nothing new! It was a multi-month global retreat, and international stocks were hammered, along with U.S. small caps. Unlike some recent dips that were bought up quickly, investors back then were worn out by relief rallies that the bears ultimately devoured.CNBC’s Michael Santoli noted that while it’s true that markets like to climb walls of worry on the way up, they also slide down slopes of hope during corrections and bear markets. That’s what it feels like today.. So far, so good after this morning’s action. The spike highs from two weeks ago in U.S. benchmark crude have held , while Brent bulls contend with the mid-$110s. As so often happens amid risk-off environments, fear spreads to other asset classes.Zooming out and scanning elsewhere, global sovereign bonds are under heavy financial fire as the war drags into its fourth week. The U.K.surged above 5% on Monday before retreating, its highest level since July 2008 . Bank of England and European Central Bank rate hikes are in the cards, according to bond traders. That hawkish reversal has sent shockwaves across the investable universe. The latest victim? Gold.Technically, just as a symmetrical triangle marked a high, perhaps the coil pattern from last October through early December provides some cushion. Plotted below, the apex of that consolidation is just below $400 on GLD. Of course, the further we are removed from the January record high, the more that massive volume event looms as a blow-off top confirmation.Intermarket action has heated up as the war in Iran continues, but the POTUS took a significant step to cool it down. Traders now eye the 6300-correction level on the S&P 500 , while it has been an outright bloodbath in global bond markets. Gold has taken a beating, crypto remains unable to sustain rallies, and evenThe good news? This sort of far-reaching intermarket behavior is more indicative of the later innings of a classic risk-off ballgame than the early going.This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks. 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