Market Analysis by covering: Brent Oil Futures, Crude Oil WTI Futures. Read 's Market Analysis on Investing.com
The week ahead is all about oil prices. As the Iran war enters its fourth week, the soaring price ofto pricing in roughly a 50% probability of a tightening move by October. In Europe, the financial markets are now pricing in as many as three ECB rate hikes by year-end.
The growing risk of a protracted Middle East conflict has put global monetary policy hawks firmly back in the ascendancy. Following last week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that further evidence of easing inflation is required before the Fed considers injecting liquidity into the economy. "If we don’t see that progress, then you won’t see the rate cut," he said. The federal funds futures market now implies no rate cuts over the next 12 months . In a relatively light week for major data, the financial markets will pay close attention to comments from Fed officials hitting the podium. Scheduled speakers include Governor Michael Barr on the economic outlook, Stephen Miran on digital assets and the Fed’s balance sheet, and Lisa Cook on financial stability. They are joined by Governor Philip Jefferson , with San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson rounding out an already crowded slate of Fed commentary. The war will remain front and center. Any further escalation involving the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian attacks, potential US boots on the ground, and attacks on energy and water infrastructure could drive significant market volatility. Over the weekend, tensions escalated further after US President Donald Trump, posting at 7:44 pm EST on Saturday, issued a 48-hour ultimatum for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, warning that the US would"obliterate" Iranian power plants if it failed to comply. So Apocalypse Now might or might not happen at 7:44 pm EST on Monday.Here are the US economic releases most likely to influence Fed thinking on the fallout from the war and the rate outlook this week:. The previous reading showed sentiment falling to 55.5 from 56.6 . This week’s update should show that surging gas prices are unnerving households around the country.data follows January’s 0.1% m/m decline . This is a pre-war report, so it won’t reflect the jump in commodity prices during March. Q4 productivity and labor cost data should confirm that both were disinflationary last year. We expect to see more of that in 2026.At a moment when Fed officials are scrambling to keep up with economic zigs and zags, regional surveys should garner extra attention . We’ll hear from the Chicago Fed , the Richmond Fed , and the Kansas City Fed . Also, S&P Global releases its March purchasing managers’ indexes for bothinsurance claims remain upbeat, as claims continue to moderate . Any reading in the neighborhood of last week’s 205,000 level would confirm that layoffs remain low.Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks. Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes.and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website. It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
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