President Donald Trump’s Iran war is colliding with political reality, as surging gas prices threaten GOP control of Congress in 2026.
Pocketbook issues are expected to dominate the midterm elections, and the recent spike in gas prices is emerging as a potential political liability for the president. Iran has choked off access to thePaxton dominates CPAC as GOP frets over Texas Senate runoffIf prices continue to climb, Republicans risk facing a voter backlash that could cost them control of one or both chambers of Congress, curtailing the final two years of Trump’s presidency.
That political risk is already showing up in early polling.released earlier this month found that 55% of respondents had their household finances “somewhat” impacted by increased gas prices. About 87% also said they thought it was probable that gas prices would rise further over the coming month. Even more worrying for Trump is that 63% disapproved of the administration’s handling of the cost of living in the U.S. The Reuters poll also found just 35% said Trump was doing a good job on the U.S. economy. The White House claimed that once the U.S. has achieved its goals in Iran, gas prices would decrease. “When Operation Epic Fury is complete, gas prices will plummet back to the multi-year lows American drivers enjoyed before these short-term disruptions,” said White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt in a statement to the. “President Trump remains committed to fully unleashing American energy dominance, lowering costs, and putting more money back in the pockets of hardworking American families.” Hayden Harms, a 21-year-old college student from Amarillo, Texas, said rising gas prices are adding to his frustration with U.S. involvement abroad, which he does not see as directly benefiting Americans. “Look at how bad the gas prices are. This isn’t what we voted for,” Harms said, adding that he hopes the situation is short-lived. “I can’t be paying this much every time I need to fill up my car.” Trump’s 2024 campaign pitch was to restore the American economy after four years of Democratic leadership. But high grocery and gas prices are threatening that message with just over seven months left until the elections. “This isn’t making America great again,” said Harms, who also warned that rising costs, particularly at the pump, could have political consequences for Republicans heading into the midterms. “I think the GOP is going to get destroyed,” Harms said, arguing that economic frustrations are eroding support. “Every single day the gas prices are elevated, the worse off Republicans are in the midterms. That’s the reality.” Xavier Heim, a 39-year-old Air Force veteran from Grapevine, Texas, said rising gas prices are frustrating but not unexpected given broader global events and past policy decisions. “Don’t get me wrong, I’m unhappy about it too,” Heim said, recalling a recent fill-up for his truck that left him stunned at the cost. But he pointed to the COVID-era shutdowns, under Biden, as a turning point, arguing, “We did that to ourselves. We shut down the country for probably no reason. Gas prices shot up more than they are now.”“We are fully tracking this short-term fluctuation in oil and diesel prices, and that’s why the president and the administration have continually announced robust actions to provide stability in the global energy market,” she said. Leavitt noted the White House was working to increase global oil supply, both domestically and in conjunction with partners across Europe and the Middle East. Midterm elections are generally seen as a referendum on the president’s party. The GOP’s control of both chambers has also made the elections even more fraught, as Democrats are itching to snatch back control of one chamber. Aaron Evans, president of Winning Republican Strategies, claimed the best-case scenario for the GOP is a decisive victory in Iran. “Americans always tend to vote with their wallets,” he cautioned. “And if we have to get into a deep foreign policy explanation on why gas prices are going up, then you know that that normally doesn’t play well. If we’re explaining, we’re losing.” “First and foremost, the fastest thing we can do is win the war in our end, get control of the Strait of Hormuz, get shipping back to normal,” he added. Last month, Trump and War Secretary Pete Hegseth claimed that Operation Epic Fury would last somewhere between four and six weeks. But at five weeks of war, it appears uncertain that there is a swift end in sight. Secretary of State Marco Rubio conceded that even as the U.S. is holding ongoing negotiations with one group of Iranian leaders, no one yet knows who willEven amid the uncertainty, some Trump voters expressed optimism that the war could end soon and eventually lead to relief at the gas pump. “The gas prices and everything, it will be temporary,” said Pourchista Shahi of San Diego. “It’s not going to last long like the Iraq war or the Syria war.”
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