FFormer Reps. Sean Patrick Maloney and Mick Mulvaney lead opposing sides in a $14 million federal lobbying war: prediction markets versus state-regulated sports gambling.
Mick Mulvaney, former Acting White House Chief of Staff during Trump's first Administration and former Congressman from South Carolina, is now the Executive Director of Gambling Is Not Investing , a coalition pushing back against the growth of prediction markets into what has typically been sports betting territory.
It’s a classic Washington extra-inning thriller — two former Republican congressmen, one former Democratic congressman, and a former mayor - now stand on opposite sides of a fierce lobbying battle that could reshape the fast-growing prediction markets industry.. At the plate: former Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney as president and CEO, with former House Financial Services Committee Chairman Patrick McHenry serving as senior advisor.. He’s backed by former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, a strategic advisor to the American Gaming Association , along with state casino and tribal gaming interests. The core dispute: Do sports-related event contracts on CFTC-registered platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket qualify as legitimate federally regulated derivatives designed for price discovery, risk management, and information aggregation? Or are they simply rebranded sports betting that belongs under state jurisdiction — complete with licensing, taxes, age restrictions, and responsible-gaming safeguards?The industry argues these platforms operate as well-regulated derivatives markets under the CFTC. “Prediction markets have long operated within a federal regulatory framework designed to promote transparency and protect consumers,” McHenry recently told Roll Call. “As these markets continue to grow, it’s critical that both consumers and platforms have clear and consistent guidance.”The prediction markets side warns that aggressive state-level challenges could drive activity offshore and stifle innovation. Recent CFTC guidance and the agency’s March 2026 Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking signal growing federal recognition that prediction markets deserve tailored treatment — distinct from traditional gambling. Former U.S. Rep. and Former Ambassador Sean Patrick Maloney, D-N.Y., the current President and CEO of the Coalition for Prediction Markets.Maloney has emphasized the informational value of these markets while drawing a sharp line against treating them as gambling: “When you gamble, you’re going in to bet against the casino, and the casino wins when you lose. When you trade on a financial exchange, you have a counterparty, a buyer and a seller for every transaction.”could drive activity offshore and stifle innovation. Recent CFTC guidance and the agency’s March 2026 Advance Notice of Proposed RulemakingMulvaney and GINI fire back: “If it walks like a sports bet, it is a sports bet.” Mulvaney told CNBC in March 2026: “The simple answer is that it’s gambling. It just is.” He added, “I buy a prediction contract, whatever that is, on the Lakers winning the basketball game. If you ask any ordinary human being if that’s sports gambling, it absolutely is.” Chris Christie, strategic adviser to the American Gaming Association, has been blunt: “Don’t pretend that it’s not a bet. It’s a bet.” He argues that prediction platforms are “blatantly breaking the law” in many states by operating outside state gaming regulation, threatening the integrity of sports, weakening consumer protections, and hurting state tax revenue. “The bottom line is it’s against the law, and they need to be stopped.” In a related publicity move, Polymarket opened a three-day pop-up bar called “The Situation Room” at Proper 21 on K Street . GINI responded by parking a truck outside with a sign reading “Gambling Is Not Investing” and a duck mascot declaring, “If it walks like a duck, it quacks like a duck, it’s a duck.” The two coalitions have been battling it out on social media as well.. The bill would prohibit CFTC-registered platforms from listing sports or casino-style contracts, restoring what supporters call proper state and tribal authority. Just days earlier, Major League Baseball named Polymarket its exclusive Prediction Market Exchange partner and signed a groundbreaking Memorandum of Understanding with the CFTC. “The new agreements… are imperative steps in proactively managing the new and rapidly growing prediction market space,” said MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred. “Protecting the integrity of the game on the field is our top priority.” Like Opening Day in baseball, the first pitch has been thrown but the game has been underway for some time. In congressional halls, regulatory offices, and on social media, everyone is watching to see whether the benches clear or the contest settles into a long, tense extra-inning battle. Some experts that the Supreme Court will ultimately have to settle who has jurisdiction over prediction markets in the next year or two. Both GINI and CPM were contacted for additional comment; however, neither responded.
Kalshi Employees Prediction Markets Vs. Sports Betting: A High-Stak Prediction Markets Vs. Sports Betting: A High-Stak
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