Bridger Beal-Cvetko is a reporter for KSL. He covers politics, Salt Lake County communities and breaking news. Bridger has worked for the Deseret News and graduated from Utah Valley University.
SALT LAKE CITY — As the U.S. and Israel were preparing a joint attack against Iran late last month, traders on online prediction markets wagered millions of dollars on potential military strikes.When those strikes materialized, kicking off what has turned into more than three weeks of war in the Middle East, some users cashed in.
One anonymous user on Polymarket known as "Magamyman" earned more than half a million dollars after correctly predicting that the U.S. would strike Iran and that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would be "out as supreme leader of Iran." Khamenei was killed in an airstrike last month.Those well-placed bets have generated fears of potential insider trading, as well as concerns that prediction markets — which allow users to bet on various outcomes but have avoided state and federal anti-gambling laws because they are regulated as commodity traders — will let betting proliferate on unsavory outcomes, including war, terrorist attacks and assassinations.Utah Rep. Blake Moore is one of those who has concerns, which is why he introduced a bill earlier this month to ban prediction market trading contracts based on wars, illegal activity, election outcomes, government action and sports betting. But as a father of four young children, Moore is worried about more than just the potential that prediction markets encourage insider trading or influence major world events."I have four young boys, 13 and under. I worry that they could potentially have a casino associated with their phone in their pocket, and that terrifies me," the Republican congressman told KSL Wednesday. "At the same time, there could be real manipulation here. It's my understanding that a handful of bets were made about whether or not the U.S. would conduct military operations in Iran, and they made a lot of money off of it. And if they're truly anonymous, what are we doing here? Sincerely, what are we doing as a society?"Moore's bill, the Event Contract Enforcement Act, is cosponsored by Rep. Salud Carbajal, D-California. The bill prohibits several types of event contracts but allows states to exempt themselves from those regulations, so that residents in states where betting is legal can still participate.Utah is one of several states that prohibit sports betting, but prediction markets such as Kalshi still allow Utahns to put money on sporting events and other outcomes because it is regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, whic
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