Nate Silver published his latest election forecast, showing former President Trump's chances of winning the presidency rising to 58%, his highest numbers since July.
Prominent elections analyst and statistician Nate Silver said Wednesday that former President Trump is now electorally favored to defeat Kamala Harris in November by the widest margin in months. Silver released his latest election forecast, writing on his Substack, 'The forecast is still in toss-up range, but Trump’s chances of winning are his highest since July 30,' Silver wrote.
There's room to debate the convention bounce stuff, but Harris has been getting a lot of mediocre state polls lately,' Silver wrote. Last week, Silver warned that Harris was poised to be a 'slight underdog' in Pennsylvania, whose 19 electoral votes are expected to play a significant part in determining the outcome of the presidential election.
On Wednesday, the polling guru delivered more bad news for the Harris campaign,writing on X that Michigan could present an 'issue' for Harris after weeks of lackluster numbers in the state. Polling shows Harris holding a slight lead in the battleground state with its 15 electoral votes, a narrow advantage that Silver says should make the Harris campaign nervous.
If you have the election tomorrow… I think Harris would be a slight favorite,' Silver said at the time. 'She has been ahead in most recent polling in the ‘blue wall’ states, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada all polling in the margin of error range.' 'People should remember, though, two things,' he added. 'One, we have three more months to go. There will be more surprises. And two, the polls have been wrong before.
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