Silver's latest election forecast shows Trump having a higher chance of securing the electoral college vote in November.
Former President Donald Trump's chances of victory in November are the highest they've been in over a month, according to Nate Silver's latest election forecast.Despite Vice President Kamala Harris' consistent string of polling victories since entering the 2024 race, Silver's forecast shows Trump having a higher chance of securing the 270 electoral votes needed to win his reelection bid, putting Trump's chances of victory at 58.2 percent as of Wednesday.
Trump lost the popular vote by nearly 3 million votes in 2016 but beat then-Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton by 74 electoral votes. The last Republican to win the popular vote in a presidential election was former President George W. Bush, who beat his Democratic opponent, John Kerry, by over 3 million votes.
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