The Peaking Series is a new series mapping the vast mountain range of past and current peaks in fossil fuel demand.
In country after country, sector after sector, fossil fuel demand has peaked and now faces a future of decline. This report develops a new framework, The Peak, Plateau, and Decline, to chart the shape of change; subsequent reports will show how this story is playing out in key sectors and regions of the world, from cars to electricity, from the United States to China.The endgame is here. In one country and region after another, demand for fossil fuels is facing inevitable decline.
Globally, energy demand is expanding slowly. In such a low-growth system, the rapid rise of new energy technologies inevitably means declining demand for old fossil fuels.However, systems are complex. Incumbents fight back, cyclicality creates noise, existing stocks support demand. The result is that fossil fuel demand tends to follow a peak, plateau, and decline pattern.
Even as penetration rises, the percentage growth rate of new technologies tends to decline over time, due simply to the law of large numbers. However, the total deployment continues to rise rapidly.S-curves vary markedly from more conventional linear models. In an S-curve, growth in terms of deployment rises rapidly following the tipping point. It can take the same amount of time to move from a minuscule market share to the tipping point of 5% as it takes to rise from 5% to a 50% market share .
By this calculus, a surging new technology can satisfy all new incremental market growth. In the global electricity system, this dynamic is currently at work: Almost all incremental demand for electricity is already met by renewables. Energy demand for a system has the characteristics of a stock because it has a huge installed base. We should thus expect the peak for fossil fuel demand to be slower than that for discrete items like ICE cars or gas boilers, but the decline to be inevitable once change has set in.
We can illustrate this with global coal demand from 2010–2025 — a classic Fuji shape . Demand peaked in 2013, fell a little in 2015, recovered a little in 2018, fell in 2020, and bounced back in 2021, so we expect a plateau of around a decade. Putin’s war may enable that plateau to last for a couple more years of course.
While this is obvious, it is notable how large the market share of the fossil fuel system is at the moment of peak demand. This often takes incumbents by surprise. How can they be facing inexorable decline when they are so large and have so much money and power? The answer is that their size is in fact a source of fragility at moments of technology-led disruptive change.There is no formal definition of what a plateau is, but it is usually clear when you see it.
United States Latest News, United States Headlines
Similar News:You can also read news stories similar to this one that we have collected from other news sources.
Opinion | Trump's lies have deadly consequences for his own supporters.FrankFigliuzzi1: Trump's extreme rhetoric is having a deadly impact on his own supporters.
Read more »
The Menu at Martha Stewart’s New Las Vegas Restaurant Couldn’t Be More PerfectNicoise salad, roast chicken, and caviar-topped baked potatoes are completely fitting for Martha’s brand of subtle elegance
Read more »
Surprising Reasons Why Narcissists Like Conspiracy Theories3 components underlying narcissism that may make someone more likely to believe in conspiracy theories, by ArashEmamzadeh
Read more »
A’s call up top prospect Langeliers, release PiscottyThe A’s put Ramón Laureano on the injured list and released Stephen Piscotty, the team announced Tuesday morning.
Read more »
Homemade Chick-fil-A Sandwiches RecipeA spot-on copycat recipe for Chick-fil-A's famous fried chicken breast sandwich, complete with two pickles.
Read more »
Rangers win 3rd straight, top A's 2-1 after Woodward firingThe Texas Rangers won a one-run game only hours after manager Chris Woodward was fired.
Read more »