View the San Francisco for Thursday, October 3, 2024
Mayoral candidates such as Daniel Lurie, left, and London Breed gain insight from polls that often isn’t shared with the public. A torrent of voter polls have dotted the San Francisco mayor’s race this year, with candidates and outside groups spending hundreds of thousands of dollars to glean insight into where things stand and shape narratives about where the race is heading.
The emphasis on polling could simply be reflective of a tight race with several viable — and well-resourced — candidates. Breed is looking to fend off a challenge from Lurie, the Levi Strauss heir and nonprofit founder; Board of Supervisors President Aaron Peskin; former interim Mayor Mark Farrell; and Supervisor Ahsha Safai. But the utility of voter polls in San Francisco is at least worthy of hesitation and consideration, according to several political insiders and pollsters who spoke with The Examiner.Mayoral campaigns have paid more than $500,000 to polling and research firms this election cycle, according to campaign-finance disclosures viewed by The Examiner, which might not be comprehensive. That’s not including multiple polls commissioned by independent political groups and by media organizations. San Francisco can be a difficult population to poll, particularly because of its complex ranked-choice voting system and its diverse population. Those who spoke with The Examiner suggested not getting too lost in details and to understand they are only a snapshot in time. “The way that political campaigns use polls is very different from the way the press does or the average member of the public does,” said David Metz, a pollster with FM3 Research. “Polls are not crystal balls. It is not our attempt to forecast the future.” But larger trends, particularly those common among several polls, are treated with greater credibility than, for example, who comes out on top after the fourth round of a simulated ranked-choice vote tabulation. By and large, polls have shown a close three-way race between Breed, Lurie and Farrell finishing within the margins of error; Peskin is generally in fourth place and Safai squarely in fifth.The first is a check on the proverbial “horse race,” to see where candidates stand against their competitors — but even those black-and-white results are subject to interpretation. Lurie’s largely self-funded campaign, as well as an independent committee backing his mayoral bid, have commissioned multiple polls. Lurie has issued four payments to David Binder Research, totaling $213,000, over the election cycle, according to campaign-finance data.early in the election that showed him trailing Breed and Farrell despite being one of the first candidates to enter the race and the race’s heaviest spender by describing them as illustration of his potential growth.Daniel Lurie speaking during the Mayoral Town Hall presented by the API Council at the Hilton Hotel in Chinatown, San Francisco on Thursday, Sept. 26, 2024.Lurie’s campaign and his supporters touted the polls as evidence that his message is resonating with voters. His opponents have largely dismissed them, suggesting his rise in second- and third-choice votes is merely evidence that his unending cascade of advertisements is being seen by San Franciscans. Apart from the standings, the benefit of polling that’s more valued by campaign operators is gleaning what types of voters are responding well to candidates and which aren’t. Such information, which is typically not released publicly, can help inform candidates’ approaches to policy, communication and campaign spending. Campaign staffers confirmed this to The Examiner, with several noting that the demographic data — which can include age, party registration, and much more — can highlight a candidate’s existing base while showing where they need to grow. “The targeting data is everything,” said Adam Probolsky, president of Probolsky Research, a firm with offices in San Francisco and Southern California. “That’s why campaigns poll, to know what to say to who.”At least one mayoral campaign has largely tuned out the polling numbers, noting that its own staffers regularly receive polling requests — and fill them out in favor of the candidate for whom they work.A voter drops off their ballot for the Gubernatorial Recall Election in a drop box at the Department of Elections in City Hall on Tuesday, Sept. 14, 2021. There are several keys to polls, including over what media they’re conducted. It would be a red flag if, in 2024, a poll was only done over the phone. Conversely, a poll only conducted online might exclude too many likely voters. Finding the right balance can be a challenge for pollsters. Another important factor is the languages in which the poll was offered. In San Francisco, a significant portion of voters speak a language other than English at home, and excluding them would be a major omission. Ranked-choice voting also throws a wrench into the mix. Many voters are undecided about who their top choice will be for mayor, let alone their third or fourth. “A lot of voters just haven’t thought it through that thoroughly yet,” Metz said. “They’ll get there, but a lot of them get there pretty late in the process” Another ingredient in the polling mix is how pollsters determine the pools of potential respondents and try to match the Election Day voting population. For example, a pollster might limit responses to people who voted in at least one of the last three elections. “If you registered since the primary, and you were passively registered through your DMV, I probably wouldn’t include you because I have no idea whether you give a s--- or not,” Probolsky said. But determining who will vote in this year’s mayoral election might have gotten a bit simpler, given that it’s the first to coincide with a presidential election, which typically draws a higher turnout.Just For Fun & Scribbledoodles owner Michelle O’Connor said that “our toy department has exploded” since she bought the company from its original owners three years ago.Click and hold your mouse button on the page to select the area you wish to save or print. You can click and drag the clipping box to move it or click and drag in the bottom right corner to resize it. 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