View the San Francisco for Thursday, October 3, 2024
Mayoral candidates such as Daniel Lurie, left, and London Breed gain insight from polls that often isn’t shared with the public.
But the utility of voter polls in San Francisco is at least worthy of hesitation and consideration, according to several political insiders and pollsters who spoke with The Examiner.Mayoral campaigns have paid more than $500,000 to polling and research firms this election cycle, according to campaign-finance disclosures viewed by The Examiner, which might not be comprehensive. That’s not including multiple polls commissioned by independent political groups and by media organizations.
But larger trends, particularly those common among several polls, are treated with greater credibility than, for example, who comes out on top after the fourth round of a simulated ranked-choice vote tabulation. Apart from the standings, the benefit of polling that’s more valued by campaign operators is gleaning what types of voters are responding well to candidates and which aren’t. Such information, which is typically not released publicly, can help inform candidates’ approaches to policy, communication and campaign spending.
Another important factor is the languages in which the poll was offered. In San Francisco, a significant portion of voters speak a language other than English at home, and excluding them would be a major omission. Another ingredient in the polling mix is how pollsters determine the pools of potential respondents and try to match the Election Day voting population. For example, a pollster might limit responses to people who voted in at least one of the last three elections.
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