Upset picks can be hard to spot in the early rounds of the tournament—see which underdogs Sports Illustrated’s experts see reaching the round of 32.
Across the country, casual fans and experts alike are building their brackets with the hopes of winning bragging rights and other prizes.But for those of you still looking to build your brackets, taking a look at what the experts are thinking can be a great jumping off point, especially when searching for a few upsets or.
. With that in mind, let's take a look at how Fischer, Sweeney and Forde see the first round playing out.Akron Zips guard Shammah Scott reacts after a shot in the men’s Mid-American Conference championship game. | Ken Blaze-Imagn Images One of the first things most fans look for when filling out their brackets is a No. 5 vs. No. 12 upset in the first round.—in three of the past four tournaments, the 12-seeds have gone 2–2 against their higher-seeded opposition in the first round. But as our experts have it this year, it might be better to look elsewhere for your first-round upsets. Both Fischer and Sweeney have the five-seeds sweeping the 12-seeds in the first round, and Forde has just one such upset—No. 12 Akron over No. 5 Texas Tech—in the opening round of the tournament. While such dominant runs are rare, they are not unheard of—in 2023, the five-seeds went 4–0 in the first round, with two of the four teams reaching the Sweet 16.South Florida Bulls forward Isaiah Jones dunks the ball against the Memphis Tigers. | Wesley Hale-Imagn Images If you’re taking it easy on the No. 5 vs. No. 12 matchups this year, have no fear—there’s plenty of potential upsets just a bit further down the bracket. All three of SI’s experts have at least two No. 11 seeds upsetting their first-round foes. To start, Fischer, Sweeney and Forde all have No. 11 VCU taking down No. 6 North Carolina to open the tournament. It’s worth noting that, who had season-ending surgery after X-rays revealed a fracture in his right hand. The oddsmakers in Las Vegas also have this one close, In addition to VCU, the trio of SI experts also all have No. 11 South Florida besting No. 6 Louisville in the first round. This game Vegas sees a bit more in the Cardinals’ favor, with Louisville a 5.5-point favorite heading into tip-off. Also, this is one of the first games of the tournament on Thursday, so if you are interested in getting in on some madness early, it’s a great place to start. To round out the potential No. 6 vs. No. 11 upsets, Sweeney has No. 11 Texas over No. 6 BYU in the first round, though the Longhorns will first have to beat fellow 11-seed NC State in their First Four matchup for the right toIt’s safe to consider No. 8 vs. No. 9 matchups a true coin flip, and No. 7 vs. No. 10 games close to the same Saint Louis Billikens center Robbie Avila handles the ball against Dayton Flyers forward Jacob Conner. | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images No one is really looking to the No. 8 vs. No. 9 line for massive upsets—the vast majority of the time the winner of this game is just set to lose to the top seed in the region before the Sweet 16—but it should be emphasized that you really don’t need to overthink these games. They are a true coin flip. Case in point, nine-seeds actually hold a slight historical edge over their eight-seed opponents in the first round of the tournament,. This year, all three SI experts have three nine-seeds moving on in the first round, with the trio agreeing on No. 9 Saint Louis over No. 8 Georgia. Meanwhile, Sweeney has the seven-seeds sweeping in the first round, but both Fischer and Forde have two 10-seeds winning, including a shared belief in No. 10 Santa Clara over No. 7 Kentucky.Hofstra Pride players Cruz Davis, Joshua DeCady and German Plotnikov celebrate after defeating the Pittsburgh Panthers. | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images For those ready to truly embrace the madness of March, there are a few bolder proclamations in our expert brackets this year. Sweeney has No. 13 Hofstra taking down No. 4 Alabama in the first round, which would be something of a shocker after the stellar year the Tide have had—although Elsewhere, Forde likes No. 13 Troy to beat No. 4 Nebraska to open the tournament. That’s the second game of the entire tournament to tip off on Thursday, and the Cornhuskers are currently 12.5-point favorites. If the Trojans take the win, it would be an early sign that we could be in for quite a bit of mayhem. While No. 13 over No. 4 upsets can feel risky, we’ve seen at least one in three of the past five tournaments, and two such upsets in 2021.Arkansas Razorbacks guard Amere Brown and forward Billy Richmond III hold the trophy after the men's SEC championship game. | Steve Roberts-Imagn Images There’s plenty of Cinderella options this year, and picking the right one really comes down to not only which underdog you believe in, but also which favorite you think might be set to falter. Fischer has No. 4 Alabama beating No. 1 Michigan in the Sweet 16 to push through to the Elite Eight, while Sweeney is taking No. 4 Arkansas over both No. 1 Arizona and No. 2 Purdue to represent the West region in the Final Four.No. 9 Iowa over No. 8 Clemson, No. 10 Texas A&M over No. 7 St. Mary’s, No. 11 VCU over No. 6 North CarolinaNo. 9 Iowa over No. 8 Clemson, No. 11 VCU over No. 6 North Carolina, No. 13 Nebraska over No. 4 NebraskaNo. 9 Saint Louis over No. 8 Georgia, No. 10 Santa Clara over No. 7 Kentucky, No. 12 Akron over No. 5 Texas TechTyler Lauletta is a staff writer for the Breaking and Trending News team at Sports Illustrated. Before joining SI, he covered sports for nearly a decade at Business Insider, and helped design and launch the OffBall newsletter. He is a graduate of Temple University in Philadelphia, and remains an Eagles and Phillies sicko. When not watching or blogging about sports, Tyler can be found scratching his dog behind the ears.
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