Falling cocoa prices won’t necessarily mean cheaper Valentine’s Day chocolates

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Falling cocoa prices won’t necessarily mean cheaper Valentine’s Day chocolates
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Chocolate prices at U.S. retail stores rose 14% between Jan. 1 and the first week of February compared to last year.

FILE – A Valentine’s Day box of chocolates is seen on a store shelf Friday, Jan. 16, 2026, in Nashville, Tenn. FILE – A man passes a Fannie May chocolate shop in downtown Chicago on Valentine’s Day, Feb.

14, 2021. at U.S. retail stores rose 14% between Jan. 1 and the first week of February compared to the same period last year, according to market research company Datasembly. That’s on top of a 7.8% increase for the same period in 2025. Europe has seen even steeper price increases. In Germany, chocolate prices rose 18.9% in 2025, according to government figures. Here’s what caused the price of cocoa futures to rise and then fall — and why that may not be reflected in the prices customers are paying., which supplies more than 70% of the world’s cocoa. Cocoa, which is made from the dried beans of the cacao tree, is the main ingredient in both dark and white chocolate.An encouraging update on inflation helps Wall Street hold steadier after its AI-related sell-offhave improved since then in Ivory Coast and Ghana, and cocoa production is increasing in Ecuador and other countries, according to an analysis by J.P. Morgan. The resulting supply increase is one reason cocoa prices are coming down.. Chocolate getting more expensive has turned off consumers, so manufacturers have cut the amount of chocolate they use or shifted to other products likeIn the U.S., annual retail sales of chocolate rose 6.7% in 2025 compared to the prior year, largely because of price increases, according to NIQ data. But the number of individual products sold was down 1.3%, as consumers bought less chocolate overall.So far, declining cocoa prices haven’t necessarily let chocolate lovers pay less. Costagli compares the situation to gas prices. Even when the cost of oil goes down, prices at the pump don’t immediately follow because companies need to use up the oil they bought at a higher price.. have long-term contracts that may require them to pay more than current cocoa prices. The market also is volatile; companies know that another bout of poor weather or a surge in demand could make cocoa prices surge again.“If the customer is still willing to pay that higher price point, do we really take the price down?” he said., which owns chocolate brands like Oreo, Cadbury and Toblerone, raised its prices by 8% globally in 2025 to counter higher cocoa costs. In Europe, the company hiked prices by even more and saw a significant decrease in the amount of its products sold. As a result, Mondelez lowered prices this year in some markets, including the United Kingdom and Germany. “We have learned that certain price points are very important, and so we have adjusted already to put our products at the right price point,” Mondelez Chairman and CEO Dirk Van de Put said during a February conference call with investors. Van de Put said Mondelez didn’t plan immediate price cuts in North America, where both its price increases and its sales volume losses were more moderate.Two segments of the chocolate market grew in the U.S. last year: value brands and super-premium brands, Costagli said. The expanded interest in higher-end chocolate may seem surprising if consumers balked at paying more for a Snickers bar or a pack of Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups. But the companies behind super-premium lines like Ferrero Rocher, Justin’s and Lindt Excellence were less aggressive about instituting cocoa-related price increases since their products already were more expensive, Costagli said. As mainstream chocolate makers like Hershey and Mars raised prices, some customers decided they’d just spend a little more, he said. “It’s given the aspirational shopper that little push they need to trade up. If they wanted a better product, if they wanted better experience, better product characteristics, organic, fair trade, whatever it might be,” Costagli said. On the flip side, value brands — think Whitman’s or some store-brand chocolates — also sold more products in the U.S. last year as price-conscious shoppers traded down from mainstream brands. “The savings you get by trading down is actually greater than it used to be,” Costagli said. “So from an aspirational perspective, it’s easier to trade up, and from a financially insecure perspective, it saves you more to trade down.”Real estate broker, 3 others accused in fraudulent sale of $1.5 million home in Burbank After housing nearly 300 people, Los Angeles officials to expand San Fernando Valley’s RV-to-Home project citywide2 LA City Council members push crackdown on illegal adsDeportation case dropped against Tustin landscaper with 3 sons in the U.S. MarinesAMP 97.1 FM making a ‘Morning Mess’ by airing LA version of Arizona show

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