Hochul's once-commanding lead over Republican Bruce Blakeman has eroded by half in three months, according to a new Siena poll.
Governor Kathy Hochul's once-commanding lead over Republican Bruce Blakeman has eroded by half in three months, collapsing from 26 points in January to just 13 points, according to the latest Siena Research Institute The result marked a 7-point tightening from February, as independents shifted toward Blakeman even as Hochul's favorability and job approval ratings held steady.
, long viewed as one of the most Democratic states in the nation, has become increasingly competitive over the last few years. Hochul faced a closer-than-expected race in 2022, and former Vice President Kamala Harris underperformed past Democratic presidential candidates against President Donald Trump in 2024. The state has not elected a Republican governor since 2002, but the Siena poll showed movement toward Blakeman for the second consecutive month,Siena's March survey found Hochul ahead 47 percent to 34 percent, down from 51 percent to 31 percent in February. The tightening was driven by independents, who now preferred Blakeman by seven points after narrowly siding with Hochul a month earlier.Yet Hochul's personal standing remained steady. Her favorability rating held at 45-42 percent, unchanged from February, and her job approval sat at 52-40 percent. Blakeman, by contrast, remains largely unknown, with 64 percent of voters saying they've never heard of him or don't know enough to form an opinion. Of those who do, though, his favorability-unfavorability ratings were tied at 18 percent.declined from 46 points in February to 29 points in March. She's at 54 percent to 25 percent in the five boroughs, while maintaining narrow advantages upstate and in the downstate suburbs.Blakeman's name recognition remained limited, with 64 percent of voters saying they never heard of him or did not know enough to have an opinion. The poll surveyed 804 registered voters March 23-26 with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. It marked the first 2026 Siena reading in which Hochul did not secure majority support among registered voters."Interestingly, Hochul's standing with New Yorkers is essentially the same as last month – a small plurality views her favorably, and a small majority approves of the job she's doing as governor.""When I'm Governor, I will end Kathy Hochul's reckless spending and put taxpayers first. I've already proven in Nassau County that we can cut taxes, cut waste, control costs, and deliver real results. I will bring that same approach to New York.""When I was a little girl, I never thought about running for office – let alone becoming governor of New York. But I'm so proud of everything we've done for New Yorkers, and we're just getting started."Hochul maintains major structural advantages. Democrats outnumber Republicans statewide by roughly 2-to-1. She has far more cash than Blakeman. Prediction markets give her a 91-93 percent chance of winning., ours is different: The Courageous Center—it's not"both sides," it's sharp, challenging and alive with ideas. We follow facts, not factions. If that sounds like the kind of journalism you want to see thrive, we need you., you support a mission to keep the center strong and vibrant. Members enjoy: Ad-free browsing, exclusive content and editor conversations.
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