Texas Senator John Cornyn is facing a potential primary challenge from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. Paxton has hinted at a run for the Senate, and polls suggest he would win a primary against Cornyn. Cornyn has faced primary challenges before and has successfully defeated them. However, the current political climate in Texas is more favorable to Paxton, as the state party has moved further to the right.
Texas Senator John Cornyn is facing what could be the toughest primary challenge of his career as the state party takes a decidedly rightward turn and his popularity among Republican voters dips from 2020 highs.
It’s a remarkable turn for the four-term senator who — before last year losing his bid for party leader — had never lost an election in his life, served in the highest echelons of the Senate Republican Conference, had an early hand in the Republican takeover of Texas and secured a host of legislative wins directly impacting the state.Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has repeatedly hinted that he’s interested in challenging Cornyn in the Republican primary, saying on Fox News he could be making moves soon. “As far as my plans, right now, I don't know. I'm just going to serve as attorney general,” Paxton said. “I'm looking potentially at the U.S. Senate. We'll look at that over the next couple of months.” But polling suggests that if Cornyn and Paxton were to have a primary today, Paxton would win. Among Republican-identifying voters, Cornyn has an approval rating of 48% — one of the lowest of state-wide office holders, according to a recent poll.Cornyn is not making any signs of stopping. He has taken on more committee assignments this year — several that will be central to some of the biggest policy priorities of the Trump presidency. He finished 2024 with $4.1 million in cash on hand, according to a source briefed on his fundraising operation, and has been meeting with some of his biggest supporters throughout Texas since the beginning of the year. When asked if he would still run for reelection shortly after losing the leadership race, Cornyn said, “absolutely.”Cornyn has faced primary challenges from the right before and mobilized his formidable operation to quash them. The Friendswood Republican at the time cited Cornyn’s distaste for Sen. Ted Cruz’s filibuster against government funding legislation that would fund the Affordable Care Act. Cornyn, who was Senate minority whip at the time, said the tactic was not effective, though he shared Cruz's antipathy for the health care law. Cornyn obliterated the opposition. He won his primary with 62% of the vote. Stockman secured just over 17%. Cornyn raised over $11 million in that race. Stockman raised just over $115,000. In 2014, former state Senator Steve Fallon, R-Sherman, challenged Cornyn. Fallon said at the time that Cornyn “has had 18 years. Some of the things you agree with until you check under the hood” as he launched an exploratory committee into a Senate run. But Cornyn was armed not only with his bountiful funds but also endorsements from across the Republican ideological spectrum. Cruz endorsed Cornyn in December 2018 — two years early and less than a month after securing his own victory against Democratic U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke. Gov. Greg Abbott also endorsed Cornyn at the same time. Cornyn ran for the U.S. House that year
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