Jason Logan analyzes the Divisional Round matchup between the Washington Commanders and Detroit Lions, predicting a closer-than-expected game. He highlights the Lions' defensive game plan to contain Washington's dual-threat QB Jayden Daniels and force him into short throws, setting up a potential breakout game for Commanders tight end Zach Ertz.
Jayden Daniels will be under duress vs. Aaron Glenn 's Lions defense, and that should mean a rise in safe throws to tight end Zach Ertz , per Jason Logan's NFL betting picks. The NFL Divisional Round pairing of the Washington Commanders and Detroit Lions is a matchup that would make Kenny Rogers smile. But when it comes to Detroit defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn and the task of slowing down Washington’s dual-threat QB Jayden Daniels , my Commanders vs.
Lions predictions believe Detroit won’t leave anything to chance. The Lions' defense is determined to contain the shifty Daniels to the pocket, take away his downfield weapons, and have the first-year phenom settling for shorter throws to tight end Zach Ertz. This point spread opened as short as Lions -7.5 in the minutes after this matchup was made, but that spread quickly spiked. We’ve seen the spread bouncing between Detroit -9 and -10, with the larger number on Washington getting bought up. I did bet Washington +10 earlier this week, making sure to get the underdog at that key number. The market consensus is Lions -9.5 as we get closer to the weekend, with more money showing on the favorite. The public has been riding with Detroit all season, so we could see this go back up. Detroit is a massive -550 favorite on the moneyline, giving it an implied win probability close to 85%. The Lions are a tough team to take down inside Ford Field, where they’ve gone 20-8 SU since 2022. The Commanders come back with a price tag of +400 to pull off the upset – a 20% chance according to those outright odds. Washington has been a competitive underdog all season and I do expect the visitors to keep it closer than oddsmakers expect. This is the tallest Over/Under of the NFL playoffs so far. It opened as short at 49.5 points and quickly ran through key numbers, to as high as 55.5 points. Postseason totals of 55 points or more have finished 9-8 O/U since 2000 and we haven’t seen one that tall since the 2021-22 AFC title game between Kansas City and Cincinnati (closed 55). These are two of the more explosive offenses in the NFL, ranked No. 3 and No. 4 in EPA per play on the year. That’s led to a 20-12-1 collective Over/Under count. I will say, for as bad the both defenses have been, the Lions have been able to scheme around their rash of injuries and the Commanders have been much stingier, especially defending the pass, over the past month. Daniels is at his best when he can move around behind the line of scrimmage, avoid the pressure, and break down the defense. We saw that on display against Tampa Bay in the Wild Card win last weekend. The Lions have a similarly aggressive approach on defense as the Buccaneers, with blitz-heavy schemes that want to chase down the QB. But we’ve seen Detroit defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn “zig” when the opponent believes he’ll “zag.” Glenn put in a resume-building performance against Minnesota in a crucial Week 18 spot, constantly crossing up the Vikings with his game plan. The big takeaway from that outing was the Lions’ man-heavy coverage erasing Sam Darnold’s first two looks, forcing him to hold on to the ball while Detroit’s ultra-aggressive pass rush closed in. I don’t expect Glenn to bring the all-out blitz against Daniels, who has rated out among the better QBs against those extra rushers. Many NFL analysts predict a more passive pass rush from the Lions, with an emphasis on containing the speedy rookie to the pocket. From there, Detroit’s man coverage will take away Daniels’ top threats like Terry McLaurin and have him settling for his third progression and checkdown options. If we look at Darnold’s passes against Detroit, he targeted tight end T.J. Hockenson eight times. That sets up a busy day for Washington veteran TE Ertz has been Daniels’ safety blanket in his first year. He finished the regular season second on the team with 91 targets, hauling 66 of those passes for an average of 3.9 receptions per game. The Commanders’ tight end, who ranks as one of the more active route runners among his position, drew only four balls in the Wild Card round with two catches for 23 yards. However, Washington went run-heavy in the second half, especially on the final game-winning drive. With game-script calling for a high-scoring finish and the Commanders to be trailing, there will be plenty of passes to go around. Ertz drew at least five targets in six of the last eight regular season outings, recording four or more catches in five of those contests. The Lions have done a solid job on rival tight ends on the year, allowing the third-lowest yardage total to the position. But with the defensive injuries piling up in the back half of the schedule, opposing TEs were finding cracks in the coverage for bigger days. I am showing them plenty of respect though, which is why I'm taking the receptions Over and not Ertz's yardage total
NFL Commanders Lions Jayden Daniels Zach Ertz Aaron Glenn Divisional Round Predictions Betting Tips
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