The Washington Commanders and Detroit Lions clash in a thrilling NFC Divisional Round matchup with a projected high-scoring affair. This breakdown analyzes key betting opportunities surrounding Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels and wide receiver Terry McLaurin against a vulnerable Lions defense.
The Washington Commanders and Detroit Lions face off on Saturday night in a high-stakes NFC Divisional Round clash with a whopping 55.5 over/under. While the Lions are fading Pro Bowl quarterback Jared Goff on his passing yards prop, this clash presents intriguing betting opportunities for Commanders pivot Jayden Daniels and wide receiver Terry McLaurin. The Commanders defense deserves recognition for their effectiveness against the pass.
They rank seventh in the league in defensive dropback EPA and fourth in defensive dropback success rate. Furthermore, they concluded the regular season by allowing the third-fewest passing yards per game (189.1). This impressive defensive performance against the pass is attributed to opponents' preference for running the ball against them, a trend anticipated to continue against Detroit on Saturday. Although Jared Goff is an efficient and accurate passer, he rarely attacks downfield. His average of 6.8 intended air yards per throw places him 22nd in the league, and he ranks low in pass attempts 20+ yards downfield. With a predicted decrease in Goff's pass attempts, primarily consisting of shorter throws, taking the Under on Goff's passing yards seems like a viable option. On the flip side, the Commanders' Jayden Daniels presents a compelling case for betting on his rushing yards. Although he was limited to 36 rushing yards in the Wild Card Round, he recorded 13 rush attempts, suggesting a good chance of surpassing his rushing yards total this week. Daniels finished the regular season with an impressive 891 yards on 148 carries, averaging 6.0 yards per rush. He led the NFL in scrambles (78) and yards from scrambles (613), and he should have ample opportunities to scramble against the Lions.Detroit, while possessing a strong pressure rate (fourth in the league), has averaged only 1.8 sacks per game since losing Aidan Hutchinson in Week 5. While they can pressure Daniels, bringing him down might be challenging, leading to him escaping the pocket. Detroit's defense, although significantly improved under Aaron Glenn, tends to struggle against mobile quarterbacks. They conceded the 29th most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks (454) this season and were 30th in that category (419) last year. The Commanders' Terry McLaurin stands as Daniels' primary target, evident from his seven receptions for 89 yards in the last game, receiving double the targets compared to Washington's second-most targeted player. McLaurin, a standout receiver, was recently named to his second Pro Bowl team after achieving his fifth consecutive 1,000-yard season. He is poised to exploit a vulnerable Detroit secondary, which lost top corner Carlton Davis in mid-December and allowed a league-high 185.1 receiving yards per game to opposing wide receivers. McLaurin's target rate surges against zone coverage (19.4%) and man coverage (24.2%), suggesting he will thrive against a Detroit defense that plays man at the highest rate in the league
NFL Betting Commanders Lions Daniels Mclaurin Goff Passing Yards Rushing Yards Divisional Round
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