On September 3, China will hold a “Victory Day” military parade in Tiananmen Square to celebrate the 80th anniversary of its victory over Japan—and to send the West a message.
President Xi Jinping and several foreign leaders and officials, including Vladimir Putin, will attend the ceremony. The Russian president's presence is reported to have prompted several European ambassadors to consider defecting from the event, fearing it would contribute to the Kremlin's international legitimization amid the ongoing war against Ukraine.
The parade will last about 70 minutes and will see dozens of formations parading down Chang'an Avenue in the heart of Beijing. Xi, as supreme commander of the armed forces, will review the troops before the march through the square. More than 10,000 military personnel, more than 100 aircraft, and hundreds of ground vehicles will be involved. The official theme is the celebration of peace and international justice, but the real content will be the demonstration of the People's Liberation Army's ability to fight high-tech wars in new strategic domains: cyberspace, outer space, electronic and hypersonic warfare. According to leaked information from Chinese dress rehearsals and official sources, more than 100 models of weapon systems, all domestically produced and already in operational service, will be on display. Among the most anticipated weapons are the new YJ series anti-ship missiles, designated YJ-15, YJ-17, YJ-19, and YJ-20. These are systems designed for a specific mission: to neutralize large US naval units, particularly aircraft carriers, the heart of American supremacy in the Pacific. These carriers are part of China's A2/AD strategy, i.e., the creation of 'defensive bubbles' that can prevent or make it too risky for enemy fleets to access the South China Sea, the Taiwan Strait, and the Western Pacific. China has developed a wide range of anti-ship missiles in recent decades, often starting with Soviet technologies, and then surpassing them with indigenous designs since the YJ-8 in the 1980s, derived from French Exocets. With the new series, China is aiming for a further qualitative leap, combining stealth, hypersonic speed, and artificial intelligence. The exact specifications are top secret, but from general tests and expert analysis, some distinguishing features come into focus. First: speed of at least Mach 4-6, thus in the range of hypersonic missiles, with terminal maneuvering capability to evade anti-missile systems. Second: range of hundreds of kilometers. Third: combined flight profile, with the cruise phase at medium-high altitude, followed by grazing descent to the sea to reduce the possibility of interception. Fourth: multiple guidance with Beidou satellite, active radar, and IR sensors. Fifth: launch versatility, adaptable to aircraft, ships, submarines, and mobile land platforms, increasing possible saturation against enemy fleets. Put together, these weapons signal to the United States that aircraft carriers are no longer untouchable, and the Pacific is no longer an 'American sea.' Also expected at the parade are new launchers capable of overcoming US missile defenses and providing Beijing with credible strategic deterrence. Rehearsal images show road-mobile ballistic missile systems, an ideal weapon to ensure so-called second strikes in the event of a nuclear conflict. China is developing and deploying a new generation of advanced mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles , designed to ensure the survival of the nuclear deterrence force in the event of a preemptive strike. Among the main models is the DF-31AG, with an estimated range of more than 11,000 kilometers , capable of hitting any target in the continental United States. Next up is the DF-41. Considered the most powerful intercontinental missile in China, it has a range of over 12,000 to 15,000 kilometers and can carry up to 10 MIRV warheads, each capable of hitting a different target. It is mobile and can be launched from both silos and rail platforms. Beijing is also banking heavily on the JL-3, an ICBM that can be launched from nuclear submarines, currently being deployed on the new Type 096 class of submarines. According to several analysts, the September 3 parade will also feature the FH-97: China's first unmanned aircraft declared combat-ready. Nicknamed “loyal wingman,” it is capable of operating in synergy with manned fighters, carrying out reconnaissance, attack, and electronic jamming missions. If confirmed, China would become the first country in the world to have a this type of stealth drone declared 'combat ready,' ahead of even the United States and Australia, which are still experimenting with similar models such as Australia's Boeing MQ-28 Ghost Bat or the US Skyborg project. Many details remain confidential, but from what has emerged, the FH-97 can carry guided bombs and air-to-air or air-to-surface missiles, and packs sensors for reconnaissance and electronic warfare. In addition, it can network with fighters such as the J-20 or J-16, acting as a force multiplier for offensive and defensive missions. Finally, it should have artificial intelligence systems to maneuver independently, follow preprogrammed routes, avoid threats, and cooperate with manned aircraft. Showing this aircraft in public means signaling to Washington, Tokyo, and Taipei that Beijing is capable of supporting next-generation air operations that are difficult to counter with current defense doctrines. Alongside hypersonic missiles and ICBM, China's developing weapons include a less conspicuous but potentially revolutionary arsenal: electronic warfare systems and directed-energy weapons. If missiles are the weapon of visible deterrence, electronic and directed energy weapons are silent tools that can blind enemy radar and communication systems, neutralize drones and missiles in flight, and protect Chinese forces from cyber- and space attacks. China has invested heavily in the field, seeing it as decisive in winning 'informatized' and 'intelligentized' conflicts. China's mobile land and naval systems can jam the frequencies used by airborne radars, cruise missiles, and satellites, while some People's Army brigades combine cyberattacks and electronic jamming, simultaneously targeting enemy hardware and software. Direct-energy weapons, on the other hand, use concentrated beams of energy to strike targets without traditional projectiles. Also on display will be the latest models of reconnaissance drones and combat drones, including unmanned underwater ones, expanding Chinese surveillance capabilities in disputed waters. The debut at the September 3 parade of these systems has strong symbolic value: Beijing wants to show that it has not only caught up with the West, but in some areas, aims to surpass it. This story originally appeared on WIRED Italia and has been translated from Italian.
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