Sahil Kapur is a senior national political reporter for NBC News.
WASHINGTON — The battle lines are being redrawn literally and figuratively for President Donald Trump’s second and final midterm election, as the contest for the House of Representatives heats up this summer with showdowns over redistricting and Trump’s big, new law pushing his domestic agenda.
August saw the beginning of a heated national fight over attempts to redraw congressional districts in various states, after Texas Republicans moved to eliminate as many as five Democratic-held seats and California Democrats moved to counter them. It means that the 2026 battlefield of competitive House races is shrinking even as the fight for the majority intensifies. The GOP push has been led by Trump in a bid to insulate his party’s congressional majority ahead of the midterms, which historically often favor the party out of power in Washington. Democrats need a net gain of three House seats to get a majority, and they are working to capitalize on voter angst that was expressed at numerous Republican town halls this summer. The number of competitive districts is slated to “shrink slightly,” said David Wasserman, an election analyst with the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, noting that some gerrymandered seats could still feature close races next fall. He estimated that redistricting alone could lead to a net pickup of anywhere from four to 12 seats for Republicans, impacting the larger fight to secure 218 seats and control of the House. “The overall seat estimate hinges on California and Florida,” Wasserman said. “If California passes its map, then Democrats should still feel cautiously optimistic about the House. If it doesn’t, and Florida redraws, then it’s a much closer call.” As Texas approved a new map at President Donald Trump’s request, California Democrats set up a ballot measure this fall to redesign the blue state’s House lines with the goal of neutralizing the GOP’s gains in the Lone Star State. Egged on by Trump, Republicans are also considering new maps that could expand their power in red states like Ohio, Missouri, Indiana and perhaps Florida. A court order in Utah could lead to a new battleground or Democratic-leaning seat there. And while Democrats in New York are exploring ways to retaliate, they may have to wait until 2028. It all points to the changing nature of the midterm landscape, with parties moving to stack the deck in their favor so they don’t have to win more voters in competitive areas. “It’s my ‘I told you so’ moment right now,” said Adam Bozzi, a liberal activist and consultant who fought to ban partisan gerrymandering during the Biden administration, which Democrats embraced and Republicans opposed. “It clearly was a missed opportunity that would have avoided this mess,” he said. “Had we passed this, it would have meant fair districts and made more sense to voters.” For the last three elections, the House majority has been decided by a handful of seats. Both parties agree that the playing field is much narrower than at any point in the last decade, with Democrats carrying no expectation of another 40-seat pickup like they won in 2018 — even if it’s another wave election. Wasserman said a hypothetical repeat of the 2018 environment would net out closer to 20 seats, given the smaller battlefield. Jacob Rubashkin, an analyst with Inside Elections, said that if both parties are “maximally aggressive” with their opportunities, Republicans would “gain significant advantages in seven seats on net.” “There are plenty of historical examples of gerrymanders not going as intended due to candidate quality, political trends or the national environment,” he said. Trump seeks to rebrand his big bill Trump and Republicans are trying to reshape not only the political map but public opinion of their “big, beautiful” domestic policy law, with the president saying he wants to rebrand the measure that extended his tax cuts and boosted immigration funding while slashing Medicaid and SNAP aid. “I’m not going to use the term ‘great, big, beautiful’ — that was good for getting it approved, but it’s not good for explaining to people what it’s all about,” Trump said last week at a Cabinet meeting. “It’s a massive tax cut for the middle class.” That's exactly how Republicans are selling it in TV ads already running in key races around the country. Meanwhile, Democrats are blasting it as a tax cut for the wealthiest earners, paid for in part by taking health care from working-class Americans. “Even Donald Trump has realized that Republicans’ Big, Ugly Law is a political disaster that’s lost the support of the American public,” Justin Chermol, a spokesman for the House Democratic campaign arm, said in a statement that also accused Republicans of “running scared” and largely avoiding town halls. An analysis released last week by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office found that the law would deliver a net resource increase of $13,600 on average for the highest one-tenth of U.S. earners, while causing a net decrease on average of $1,200 for the lowest one-tenth of earners. Democrats have made the law — which public polling shows to be unpopular overall, though it contains some more popular elements — a focal point of their pitch to voters to hand them power in the House next year. They’re hoping that a backlash to Trump and GOP control of the White House and Congress will compensate for Democrats’ own problems, which range from an exceptionally weak brand to losses in voter registration. Democrats continue to overperform in low-turnout special elections, giving them hope of a favorable electorate turning out in 2026. Meanwhile, a new memo from the National Republican Congressional Committee advises candidates to tout their party-line domestic policy law — especially its tax breaks for tips, overtime and parents with children. Citing an internal poll of 46 battleground districts, the NRCC encouraged candidates to criticize Democrats “as voting to raise taxes and hike costs on working families.” “Stay on offense; this is the signature debate of 2026, and winning it means holding the majority,” the NRCC memo concluded.
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