NASA has raised the probability of an asteroid, nicknamed 2024 YR4, impacting Earth on December 22, 2032, to 2.3%. While the risk is still small, it marks a doubling from the agency's initial estimate. NASA is closely monitoring the asteroid's orbit and expects to be able to rule out the impact hazard. The agency estimates the asteroid to be between 130 and 300 feet across. If it did collide with Earth, the impact would likely cause localized damage but not threaten the planet or humanity.
NASA said last week that there is currently a 2.3% chance that the asteroid, dubbed 2024 YR4, will hit Earth on Dec. 22, 2032. While still tiny, that probability nearly doubled from the agency’s initial estimate of 1.2% in late January.The agency is monitoring the asteroid’s orbit and said that the object’s “impact hazard” could be ruled out eventually. But in a NASA estimates that the asteroid measures between 130 feet and 300 feet across.
A space rock of that size would likely cause local damage, but not threaten the entire planet or humanity, as might be the case if a much larger asteroid was on a collision course with Earth.The asteroid 2024 YR4 was first detected by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System station in Chile on Dec. 27, 2024. Since then, researchers have been studying the space rock using ground-based telescopes.
NASA said the asteroid will continue to be visible to ground-based observatories through April. After that, the space rock will be too faint to see until around June 2028. The agency’s James Webb Space Telescope will train its eyes on the asteroid in March to better assess its size, according to NASA.news
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