Experts are closely monitoring an asteroid that has a small chance of impacting Earth in 2032. While the risk is currently assessed as low, NASA emphasizes that the probability of collision may fluctuate as more data becomes available.
Space agencies globally are monitoring an asteroid, 2024 YR4 , that presents a potential threat of impact with Earth in December 2032. While initial assessments by NASA and the European Space Agency placed the probability of collision at 1.6%, recent calculations by internet sleuths indicate a rise to 1.9%. NASA emphasizes that this likelihood will continue to fluctuate as more observational data is gathered and integrated into the analysis.
Although the increased collision probability might seem alarming, experts stress that the risk remains extremely low, with over a 98% chance of the asteroid, a collection of rocks and metals roughly the size of a football field, safely passing Earth.NASA acknowledges that orbits based on limited observation sets are inherently more uncertain, often 'permitting' future impacts. However, they assure the public that these early predictions can often be dispelled as more observations are conducted, reducing uncertainties in the asteroid's trajectory. Frequently, the perceived threat associated with a specific object diminishes as additional data becomes available, potentially even leading to a zero percent chance of collision.The asteroid currently holds a Level 3 ranking on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, a system used to communicate the potential dangers posed by near-Earth objects. At this level, the scale suggests a close encounter worthy of astronomer attention, with current calculations indicating a 1% or greater chance of collision capable of localized destruction. NASA anticipates that further telescopic observations will likely downgrade the risk to a Level 0. Public and official attention is warranted if the encounter is within a decade. This alert level, the second highest since 2004, when the asteroid Apophis reached a Level 4, serves as a reminder of the importance of continuous monitoring and analysis of near-Earth objects. Notably, subsequent observations of Apophis revised its trajectory, confirming a safe passage around Earth in 2029 at a distance of approximately 20,000 miles
ASTEROID SPACE EARTH IMPACT NASA 2032 2024 YR4 TORINO SCALE
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