A recently discovered asteroid, 2024 YR4, has a 2.2% chance of impacting Earth on December 22, 2032, according to the European Space Agency. While the risk assessment has increased from 1.2% last week, astronomers expect the percentage to evolve as more observations are gathered.
Ashley StricklandAstronomers have detected fast-repeating radio bursts from a distant"dead" galaxy that should not contain the energy to produce these types of signals.
The more astronomers can observe asteroid 2024 YR4, the more they can refine their understanding of its size and trajectory, which will determine the likelihood of an impact."Basically, the more observations we get, the more we can localise and confirm the asteroid's trajectory, which is most likely to turn out to be a flyby, and not an impact," according to a blog post the agency shared. "Hence, we expect the risk forecast can be steadily/stepwise reduced to zero.
In 1908, a 30-meter-wide asteroid struck the Podkamennaya Tunguska River in a remote Siberian forest of Russia, according to the Planetary Society. The event leveled trees and destroyed forests across 830 square miles . Since early January, astronomers have used the Magdalena Ridge Observatory in New Mexico, the Danish Telescope and the Very Large Telescope in Chile to track the asteroid, which is currently more than 28 million miles from Earth and moving farther away over time, Farnocchia said.
"Using the available tracking data, we can predict the future position of an asteroid," Farnocchia said. "The longer we track an asteroid, the more precise the prediction. As we collect additional data, the uncertainty in the position of 2024 YR4 in 2032 will decrease."
ASTEROID RISK IMPACT EARTH 2024 YR4 ESA NASA
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