What league insiders are saying about the lingering decisions for Austin Reaves, Jalen Duren, Mitchell Robinson this offseason.
). And while this offseason's biggest drama will likely play out in the trade market, that doesn't mean there won't be interesting storylines to follow.
After talking to several sources around the league, here's a look at some of this summer's more intriguing free agents, including what league insiders project for each player's potential contract.at the trade deadline and had an immediate impact, including a 43-point performance in a Game 4 win over the-- Minnesota simply cannot afford to let Dosunmu walk. That's why sources around the league expect he will be back with the Wolves, but for a price slightly above the midlevel exception , which is what most rival teams could offer.
Doing so might require Minnesota to move off DiVincenzo, who will miss at least most of next season with a torn right Achilles, to avoid going into the second luxury tax apron. Duren's bet on himself paid off in a major way.
After the two sides never came close to an agreement on an extension last fall, Duren had the best season of his career, making both the All-Star and All-NBA teams for the first time and helping power the Pistons to the East's best record. A subpar playoff run, however, took some shine off Duren's breakthrough season and likely dented his potential earnings in the eyes of rival scouts and executives.
Duren is still likely to command a new contract approaching $40 million per year, a sign of his improvement, his importance to the roster and his relationship with Pistons superstar guard Though there's a chance, especially after the impasse between the two sides last summer and fall during his extension negotiations, that Duren could seek a suitor to give him a hefty offer sheet that the Pistons would all but certainly match.
"If he wants to get a max, they'll tell him to go get one," an East executive told ESPN. "But he's Cade's guy, so they'll have to play it the right way. 's emergence as a critical piece of Oklahoma City's push to return to the NBA Finals for a second straight year, the pressure on the 76ers to retain Grimes -- whom they chose to keep over McCain at February's trade deadline -- grows by the day.
Since-fired president of basketball operations Daryl Morey traded McCain for a first-round pick and three second-rounders.. -- would cause Philadelphia to go well into the luxury tax, something the team has repeatedly avoided in recent years. It will be one of the first important decisions for whoever is hired to replace Morey .
The belief overall is that Grimes will land something at or below the midlevel exception, and ultimately, it will come from the 76ers.
"I do think he stays there out of pressure," a West executive said. "You have to keep at least one of , if not both, after that trade. Kessler's restricted free agency has been a topic of intrigue around the league since failed extension negotiations in the fall, and after Utah swung a big trade to land another big man,is a full-time center, Kessler remains an important player in Utah's path back to contention in the Western Conference.
The consensus is that Kessler is signing a new deal with the Jazz in the range of $25 million to $30 million a year.
"It appears Utah is gearing up to keep him," an East scout said. "I don't see an obvious fit in free agency for someone to try to get him. They're going to be in an interesting spot next season, and I'm excited to see how they navigate all of it.
" The majority opinion is that Reaves will remain in Los Angeles -- and on a massive raise. But after playing on one of the best value contracts in the league the past few seasons, what number gets that done? Several scouts and executives predict something in the range of five years, $200 million, but below his five-year max of $239 million, per ESPN's Bobby Marks.
"I'd be pretty surprised if the first year starts with a 3 instead of a 4," an East scout said, "but the Lakers need to keep him, and by all accounts he wants to be there, so I think they make it work. "-- the two top unrestricted free agents from this year's roster -- the belief is that coming off New York's dominant run to the NBA Finals, both will be back.
And both will likely be on two-year deals as the Knicks are likely going to go well into the second apron next season and the following anyway, before needing to duck back out. In Robinson's case, that's likely a two-year deal above the midlevel exception -- again, the main mechanism that other teams will likely have to try to pry him out of New York -- to keep him as part of the team's center rotation alongside "You have to bring him back," an East executive said.
"If they win the Finals, they're not losing anybody. And, even if they don't, I don't see how they let him walk.
" Watson is one of the more intriguing free agents this summer, even though Denver can match any offer sheet. The 23-year-old fits one of the most coveted archetypes in the modern NBA -- versatile 6-foot-8 wing -- but retaining Watson and keeping the current roster intact would push Denver far into the luxury tax.
is likely to be moved to create enough room to give Watson something in the per-year range of those players. One point of potential concern is Watson's recurring hamstring injuries, which cost him a large chunk of the second half. Unfortunately, the injury came right after the best stretch of his career in January and early February.
"They could easily just pay him and pay the tax, but we know how the Kroenkes operate," a West scout said. "That means sending out either Johnson or Braun, and I don't know where that lands. The injury stuff is a concern, but so is how they struggled without him.
" Like Robinson, Williams is both a highly impactful big man, but one with injury issues. Williams played in 59 games for Portland this past season -- after playing in 61 games total across the prior three seasons. But, when he's on the court, he is capable of impacting the rim at both ends of the floor -- as a rim-running center offensively and a rim-protecting one on defense.
With the shift toward size becoming increasingly important the past couple of seasons, even with his injury history, there's plenty of interest in acquiring Williams. The full midlevel on a short-term deal is being seen as the height of his market, with the potential of being closer to $10 million per year.
"The injury history will scare a lot of teams off," a West executive said. "But when he plays, he's good. You just can't expect him to start for you because he won't be on the court if you play him that many minutes. He'll be good value if -- a huge if -- he can stay on the floor.
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