John Collins' points prop is too high against the Clippers' stingy defense, making the Under a good bet in the final game before the All-Star break.
John Collins is one of Jazz's cogs but his points prop is too high tonight. He's on the second half of a back-to-back against the Clippers' top-shelf defense and hasn't been 100% often this season. It’s “last call” for NBA betting for about a week when the Utah Jazz host the Los Angeles Clippers in the final game before the All-Star break. Utah is coming off an upset win over the L.A. Lakers on Wednesday, snapping a three-game skid and picking up its third win in 15 games.
The Jazz and Clippers clashed just last weekend, with Los Angeles earning a 20-point victory at home. Utah was without forward John Collins in that past matchup (rest) and my Clippers vs. Jazz predictions don't expect much from him tonight. Collins has upped his offensive output since returning to the lineup in late January, putting up 18.6 points per game over his last seven showings. The veteran forward missed a good chunk of time due to a hip injury as well as an illness but has returned to regular minutes this month. Tonight’s scoring total sits at 17.5 points O/U, which is on the high side for Collins’ props over the past two months. His numbers have swung as low as 14.5 to as high as 18.5 O/U, with Collins going Over his scoring total in eight straight games until falling a half-point short of 17.5 O/U last night. He put in a 17-point effort in the win over the Lakers, shooting 5-for-9 from the field and making all seven free throws in just 27 minutes. The Jazz are ripe for a faceplant after a rare win. The Jazz are just 2-10 SU coming off a victory this season. Los Angeles sits second in advanced defensive rating and third in points allowed per game and has been extremely stingy versus rival frontcourts. The Clippers rank fifth in points allowed to opposing forwards, stemming from a solid interior defense that gives up the fifth-fewest points in the paint. That’s where Collins does the bulk of his scoring (9.7 PITP per game). Player projections for Collins range from 14.7 to 16.3 points tonight, which all fall below his current Over/Under. My forecast comes in at 15, which should have the Under 17.5 priced around -210. While Collins sat out the most recent matchup with L.A., he’s put up scores of 13 and 14 points in his previous two games versus the Clippers this season, shooting a collective 9-for-17 in those contests. Collins faces a tougher defensive foe and with projections coming up short, this is a good “sell spot” on the veteran forward. Kessler is forecast for at least 10 points against the Clippers and has shown on offense in the past four games. I expect the Jazz to fall into a letdown spot in the final game before the break while L.A. tries to finish with bang, even with Kawhi Leonard on the sideline.Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game NBA moneyline bet gets• Bookies opened the Clippers as 7.5-point road chalk and that spread has swelled to -9, with play on Los Angeles. • The Over/Under hit the board at 225.5 points, quickly jumped to 226 but has drawn Under play all the way down to 224.5 O/U. • According to Covers Consensus, 60% of spread picks are laying the points with the Clippers while 64% of total picks are taking the Over
NBA Betting Clippers Vs Jazz John Collins Player Props Over/Under
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