The Iran war is forcing China to reassess its strategy, from energy security to the military use of artificial intelligence.
The war unfolding around Iran is being closely monitored in Beijing, where policymakers and analysts are studying the conflict for what it reveals about shifting global power dynamics. While China has limited its public response to calls for de-escalation, the crisis has triggered deeper reflection within the country’s strategic community.
For Beijing, the developments raise several overlapping concerns. Instability in the Middle East threatens energy supplies and overseas investments that are central to China’s economic planning. At the same time, the conflict has highlighted how emerging technologies, particularly artificial intelligence, are increasingly being used by the US in its military operations.Together, these factors have turned the war into a moment of strategic assessment for China, forcing policymakers to evaluate both the risks the conflict poses to its interests and the lessons it may hold for the country’s technological and military trajectory.Economic threats that influence China’s call for restraint China’s official response to the war has been measured and largely diplomatic. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has condemned the strikes against Iran and urged an immediate halt to the fighting, arguing that military force risks creating deeper instability.According to Reuters, Wang told Israeli officials that “force cannot truly solve problems; instead, it often creates new ones and leaves serious long-term consequences,” while reiterating China’s preference for resolving conflicts through dialogue and negotiation.This cautious position is fittingly representative of Beijing’s overall geopolitical strategy. Unlike the United States and its network of defense alliances, China rarely commits to mutual defense obligations and typically avoids direct military involvement in conflicts far from its borders. However, neutrality does not mean indifference. The war poses several potential risks to China’s economic and strategic interests.China is the world’s largest importer of crude oil and remains heavily dependent on energy flows from the Middle East. The Center on Global Energy Policy says that China imported roughly 1.38 million barrels of oil per day from Iran in 2025, accounting for around 12 percent of its total crude imports. Disruptions to the region’s shipping lanes, especially through the Strait of Hormuz, could therefore have significant consequences for China’s energy securityThe two countries signed a 25-year strategic partnership in 2021, under which China pledged to invest billions in Iran while securing long-term energy supplies. Yet analysts believe that only a fraction of those investments has actually materialized.Beyond energy supplies, instability in the Middle East could also affect China’s broader global investments. Analysts warn that prolonged conflict could disrupt financial flows and infrastructure projects tied to Chinese economic initiatives across Asia, Africa, and the Middle East.Philip Shetler-Jones of the Royal United Services Institute told the BBC that a prolonged crisis could destabilize regions where China has major investments, particularly if Gulf capital flows into Africa and other developing regions begin to slow.The war exposes China’s military limitationsWhile China has become a global economic power, the current conflict has also highlighted limits to its military reach. Both the United States and Israel have demonstrated the ability to conduct rapid, high-precision operations across multiple regions simultaneously. According to analysts quoted by the BBC, such actions illustrate what global military power looks like in practice, with their capacity to project force quickly and decisively across different theaters.Despite its growing military budget and technological development, China does not yet possess the same level of global operational capability. Philip Shetler-Jones noted that the United States continues to demonstrate an ability to “force outcomes in theatres across the globe,” a level of influence that China has not yet matched. For Beijing, this creates a strategic dilemma. The country seeks to challenge the U.S.-led international order while simultaneously avoiding direct military confrontation.The war in Iran has become both a warning and a case study for Chinese strategists observing the modernization of conflict. There is, however, a specific area where China plans to improve. Chinese scholars warn of an AI military gapChinese political scientist Zheng Yongnian, an adviser to Beijing and dean at the Chinese University of Hong Kong’s Shenzhen campus, recently warned that China risks falling behind if it does not integrate AI more aggressively into military strategy.According to a report by the South China Morning Post , Zheng pointed to the precision strikes that eliminated Iran’s Supreme Leader as an example of how deeply AI has become embedded in U.S. military operations.He argued that American technology firms such as Palantir, Anthropic, and Anduril have become central to intelligence gathering, data analysis, and battlefield decision-making, creating a tightly integrated ecosystem linking Silicon Valley and the U.S. defense sector. Zheng also referenced a U.S. operation in Venezuela earlier this year that reportedly used AI-driven targeting and drone swarms to capture the country’s leader within hours.“Today, from the capture of the Venezuelan president in less than two hours to the precise and timed elimination of Iran’s supreme leader … the US has achieved a deep integration of military and AI,” Zheng said, according to SCMP. He warned that China could repeat historical mistakes if it develops cutting-edge technology but fails to convert it into strategic power.“My concern is that, given this level of development in the US, if we possess AI but do not use it for military affairs, might we fall into the trap of excessive moralizing?” Zheng said.Zheng framed his argument through a historical analogy that resonates deeply in Chinese political discourse. China’s “Four Great Inventions,” papermaking, printing, gunpowder, and the compass, were groundbreaking innovations. Yet European powers ultimately turned some of these technologies into instruments of military and scientific dominance.For him, the lesson is clear. Invention alone does not guarantee a strategic advantage. What matters is the ability to integrate technological breakthroughs into state power.In the AI era, he argues, China must avoid focusing primarily on civilian applications, such as entertainment and consumer technology, while neglecting military uses. Instead, Zheng called for stronger “civil-military fusion,” a policy framework that encourages cooperation between commercial technology companies, academic institutions, and the armed forces.Without such integration, he warned, China risks finding itself strategically vulnerable. “Without strength, we will find ourselves in a passive position like Iran,” he said.On one hand, instability threatens energy supplies, economic investments, and global markets that are crucial to China’s growth. On the other hand, the conflict is reinforcing debates inside China about the future of warfare and the role of technology in international power competition.Beijing’s immediate response may remain cautious diplomacy and calls for a ceasefire. But behind the scenes, the war is likely to intensify China’s efforts to accelerate technological development, deepen civil-military integration, and narrow what many Chinese analysts perceive as a widening gap with the United States.
AI Warfare Artificial Intelligence Beijing Policy China Civil Military Fusion Defense Technology Energy Security Geopolitics Global Power International Relations Iran War Middle East Conflict Military AI Gap Military Technology Modern Warfare Strait Of Hormuz Strategic Competition US US Military Technology
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