Iran's regime demands the unfreezing of its assets as a first step in negotiations, with reports suggesting a significant release from Qatar. Former U.S. officials warn of potential retaliation, including assassinations, if the U.S. continues its hardline stance.
Tasnim News, affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, reports that the Iran ian regime is demanding the release of its frozen assets as an initial step in any negotiation.
Nour News, linked to the Supreme National Security Council, suggests that $11 billion could be released upfront, with a significant portion coming from Qatar. The report also hints at an agreement allowing a certain number of ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, though it does not explicitly rule out Iran's tolling scheme.
Former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has criticized this approach, likening it to a strategy used by U.S. officials like Wendy Sherman and Rob Malley, which he argues amounts to funding Iran's Revolutionary Guard to build a weapons of mass destruction program and sponsor terrorism. The Iranian regime's successful extraction of concessions by threatening freedom of navigation may embolden it to repeat such tactics.
While the U.S. may hope for a temporary stabilization of the region, it should not underestimate the potential for retaliation. Following the U.S. airstrike that killed Qods Force chief Qassem Soleimani in 2020, the Islamic Republic has reportedly targeted Pompeo, John Bolton, and Brian Hook for assassination. If the U.S. were to launch Operation Epic Fury, targeting Iran's supreme leader and top generals, the regime would likely seek revenge.
The Islamic Republic has demonstrated patience in the past, assassinating dissidents across Europe, and has grown bolder in recent years, attempting to kidnap dissident Iranian journalist Mahsa Amini in New York. The Iranian regime's retaliation could extend beyond U.S. officials to include their families. Not only could the president's family be targeted, but also Navy captains and commanders whose personal details have been obtained by Iranian intelligence through public sources. Top diplomats and Pentagon brass may also be at risk.
While former U.S. presidents receive limited protection after leaving office, other former officials and their families are largely unprotected. In an era where some embrace moral equivalence, Iran may seek revenge for past actions with similar attacks. It has previously used proxies like Lebanese Hezbollah and even attempted to hire a Mexican drug cartel to assassinate the Saudi ambassador in Washington, D.C.
Michael Rubin, a contributor to the Washington Examiner's Beltway Confidential, is a director of analysis at the Middle East Forum and a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute
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