A new poll reveals a dramatic shift in voting intentions among British Muslim voters, with a significant number considering alternatives to Labour due to dissatisfaction with the party's stance on the Israel-Hamas conflict. The findings suggest Labour is set to be 'punished' in the upcoming local elections.
A new poll indicates a significant decline in Labour 's support among British Muslim voters in the upcoming local elections . The research, conducted by the Policy Exchange think tank, reveals that a substantial portion of Muslim voters are considering alternatives to Labour , driven by dissatisfaction with the party's handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict.
Specifically, three in five would contemplate supporting a pro-Gaza independent candidate to prevent a Labour victory, while nearly half would consider backing the Green Party if it meant sending a message to the government. This shift represents a dramatic change from the 2019 General Election, when Labour secured 80% of the Muslim vote under Jeremy Corbyn. Support has since fallen, estimated at a 20% national decline, and even more pronounced in certain constituencies.
The Gorton and Denton by-election in February, where the Green Party achieved a surprising victory with a 26.4% swing in a constituency with a 28% Muslim population, is seen as a key indicator of this trend. The Green Party is now attracting 27% support among Muslim voters, a 10-point increase compared to their general election polling average. The poll also highlights a growing divergence in perspectives between Muslim voters and the broader British population regarding the Israel-Gaza conflict.
Muslim voters are five times more likely than the average Briton to state that their vote will be influenced by this issue, with one in four indicating it will be a determining factor. Furthermore, the survey reveals concerning views within the Muslim community regarding certain geopolitical actors and sensitive issues. A quarter of British Muslims express a favourable view of Hamas, while a similar proportion hold an unfavourable one.
Additionally, more Muslims hold a favourable opinion of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, despite its impending proscription as a terrorist organisation in Britain. The poll also indicates a higher acceptance of violence as a legitimate response to perceived religious offenses, such as the burning of the Qur'an or depictions of Muhammad. These findings raise questions about integration and shared values within British society. Beyond voting intentions, the Policy Exchange research also raises concerns about the integrity of the electoral process.
One-seventh of Muslims in the surveyed areas reported having their postal votes collected by campaigners, a practice illegal since 2022, nearly double the rate among the general electorate. The survey encompassed over 1,000 British Muslim voters across key regions including Greater London, the West Midlands, Greater Manchester, West Yorkshire, and parts of Lancashire, South Yorkshire, and Merseyside.
Dr. Rakib Ehsan, the lead author of the report, warns that Labour is likely to be 'punished' by Muslim voters in the local elections, potentially leading to the election of independent candidates in cities like Birmingham and Blackburn, as well as London boroughs such as Newham. He emphasizes the fundamental differences between the general population and British Muslims in areas where integration challenges persist, particularly regarding the prioritization of the Israel-Gaza conflict as a voting issue.
The data suggests that Keir Starmer's attempts to appeal to Muslim voters by distancing himself from US-Israeli policies towards Iran have failed to stem the decline in support
Labour Muslim Voters Local Elections Israel-Hamas Policy Exchange Green Party Voting Intentions Political Poll UK Politics Integration
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