Meteorologist Hannah Fink explains how tropical systems have formed during the month of May.
) - As the calendar turns to the month of May , the Gulf Coast enters a transitional period where tropical development becomes possible but remains relatively uncommon.
Historically, most early-season systems form in the western Caribbean, southern Gulf, or just off the Southeast U.S. coast, where waters warm the fastest. Even then, the atmosphere often isn’t cooperative for long lived development. Strong wind shear, lingering cold fronts, and an active jet stream typically prevent storms from strengthening, which is why hurricanes in May are extremely rare, and if they do form, they’re usually short-lived.
The most recent example, Tropical Storm Arlene in 2023, followed that exact pattern, developing briefly in the Gulf before quickly weakening. Instead of classic hurricanes, May systems are often disorganized or subtropical in nature, forming from stalled frontal boundaries over warm water. Storms like Tropical Storm Alberto highlight the main concern this time of year: not destructive winds, but heavy rainfall and localized flooding that can extend far from the center.
For areas like Mobile County, systems passing within 200 nautical miles during May are infrequent and typically weak. However, they can still bring periods of heavy rain, gusty winds, and rough coastal conditions. Fisherman missing after falling off Cedar Point Pier in south Mobile CountyA series of opportunities are on the way to bring potentially much-needed rainfall to the Gulf Coast
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